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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 50 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
1050 am PDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Updated for aviation discussion 


Update...low pressure over the pacnw will continue to pump moisture 
into our area today. The latest radar was showing a plume of 
rain/isolated thunderstorms and rain from around Ontario and this extends northwest toward 
PDT/alw. Also there seems to be a convergence zone over the Blue 
Mountains of Oregon with heavy rain occurring and have increased 
probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast here. Otherwise the visible satellite was showing some 
subtle breaks in the clouds over central Oregon which could enhance 
daytime heating and produce a better chance for an isolated thunderstorms and rain this 
afternoon. 


Otherwise afternoon temperatures should remain below normal as they 
climb only into the 60s across the basin and the remainder of the 
forecast appears on track for now. 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs...an upper level low will remain over the 
region for the next 24 hours providing broken middle level clouds and 
scattered showers. Some low clouds will continue at kpdt and kalw 
over the next 6 hours. For the most part taf sites can expect VFR 
conditions but...MVFR conditions will not be ruled out and will 
likely be on and off at kpdt and kalw. Isolated thunderstorms will 
be possible over central Oregon and the eastern Oregon mountains 
from 20z to 05z. West winds have increased this morning with most 
sites wind speeds at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts...except 15 
to 25 kts with gusts to 35 kts at kdls and kpdt. Winds will remain 
at 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts after 06z with the 
exception of kykm...krdm...and kbdn which will drop below 10 kts. 
Weber 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 444 am PDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/ 


Short term...today through Thursday night...a large upper low 
pressure system will continue to slowly move inland today and 
tonight. The NAM is a little faster in its eastward progression but 
all of the models are indicating an increase in moisture and 
instability as the low moves across the forecast area today. Showers 
will definitely occur in the northern Blue Mountains eastward across 
Wallowa County and the Grande Ronde Valley. Showers will be likely 
over the southern Blue Mountains and the ochoco-John Day Highlands 
while showers will be scattered elsewhere. With colder air aloft to 
destabilize the atmosphere and breaks in the overcast to heat the 
surface there will also be isolated thunderstorms with the showers. 
Thunderstorms will be concentrated mostly over the central and 
northeast mountains and Highlands. Severe storms are not expected 
due to the lack of heating as there will be a lot of cloud cover. 
Thunderstorms will linger into the evening and then dissipate 
overnight. The upper low will continue to progress eastward on 
Thursday but its main effects will be felt further eastward with a 
northwest flow on the back side of it. The NAM model wants to take 
it eastward the fastest with the GFS being the slowest model. 
Nevertheless there will still be a chance of showers. A thunderstorm 
is possible over the northern Blue Mountains eastward on Thursday 
afternoon and evening. Again thunderstorms are not expected to 
become severe on Thursday either and they will dissipate by late 
evening. Showers will also gradually decrease from southwest to 
northeast Thursday night as the low pulls away slowly to the east to 
northeast. 88 


Long term...Friday through Wednesday...on Friday an upper low will 
be located over eastern Washington and move into central Idaho 
Wednesday night. Our area will start out with a chance of showers 
north of Madras and John Day in the morning then gradually dry out 
during the day with only a slight chance of showers in the eastern 
mountains by the overnight hours. There does appear to be enough 
instability for a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher 
terrain of the eastern mountains and Wallowa County in the afternoon 
and evening. On Saturday a weak ridge will begin developing over the 
area as the low departs to the east. Have kept a slight chance of 
some upslope showers in the eastern mountains in the afternoon and 
evening as the low departs. On Sunday or Sunday night another low 
begins to impact the area. Models disagree as to the timing and 
strength of this system. Rather than pick one model timing over 
another have kept the existing forecast of a chance of rain in the 
mountains through Monday with a slight chance in the lower 
elevations Sunday increasing to a chance of rain Sunday night and 
Monday before tapering off Monday night. Have also kept a slight 
chance of thunderstorms in the Blue Mountain foothills and the 
eastern mountains Monday afternoon and evening. Models show an 
active weather pattern with weak disturbances Monday and Tuesday and 
with significant differences between the models. Have a slight 
chance to a chance of rain in the mountains with the lower 
elevations mostly dry Tuesday through Wednesday for now. Temperature 
will start out well below normal Friday with highs in the middle 60s to 
lower 70s with middle 50s to middle 60s in the mountains. With a ridge 
over the area highs will rise 8 to 10 degrees Saturday and a few 
more on Sunday to the upper 70s to middle 80s with 70s in the mountains 
where it will remain through Wednesday..perhaps a degree or two 
cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Perry 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 65 47 69 47 / 70 40 40 30 
alw 63 51 69 51 / 70 50 40 30 
psc 70 52 72 52 / 50 40 40 30 
ykm 70 50 68 50 / 40 40 40 30 
hri 69 51 72 51 / 50 40 40 30 
eln 68 50 66 50 / 40 40 40 30 
rdm 61 36 69 36 / 50 30 20 20 
lgd 57 43 63 43 / 90 60 40 30 
gcd 56 39 64 39 / 70 50 30 20 
dls 69 51 72 51 / 40 40 30 30 


&& 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


Threat index 
today : green 
Thursday : green 
Friday : green 


Green: none or limited need for watches, warnings, or advisories. 
Yellow: a few watches, warnings, or advisories possible or in effect. 
Red: numerous watches, warnings, or advisories possible or in effect. 


For additional weather information, check our web site at... 
www.Weather.Gov/Pendleton 


$$ 


97/83/89