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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 45 °
• Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
455 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
cool and rainy conditions will be common across the region through 
Thursday with the heaviest rainfall amounts concentrated across 
portions of the Idaho Panhandle and northeastern Washington. The 
rain will gradually subside late Friday with a drying and warming 
trend expected briefly this weekend. Another period of wet and 
cool weather will arrive potentially as early as Sunday afternoon 
and persist through much of next week. 




&& 


Discussion... 


..persistent band of moderate rain Wednesday into Thursday for 
the Idaho Panhandle may cause localized flooding and mud slides... 


Tonight into thursday: our main focus for tonight into Thursday 
will be tracking rain rates over north Idaho and northeast 
Washington. As expected, a persistent band of light to moderate 
rain has stalled over the north Idaho Panhandle and southeast 
British Columbia today. Rain intensities were higher with this 
band during the early morning hours with some spots around Priest 
Lake, Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint receiving as much as .20 to .30 
inches per hour for a couple of hours. In general rain rates have 
slowed to a tenth of an inch or less this afternoon which is good 
news. We will continue to monitor the north Idaho Panhandle and 
far northeast Washington for the potential for small stream 
flooding. As soils become increasingly saturated, mud slides and 
debris flows in steep terrain areas will become more of a threat. 


Looking at the satellite imagery and the regional radar mosaic 
shows a pair of distinct precipitation bands (as of 2 pm). The 
first band extends from southern b.C. Into southwest Montana. This 
large synoptically driven deformation band has moved little since 
the middle of this morning, but should begin to pivot northeast 
this evening as the large-scale upper trough migrates northeast. 
The second precipitation band is a smaller cluster of rain and 
showers over eastern Oregon and southern Idaho which is more 
closely tied to an upper level disturbance embedded within the 
larger scale trough. The GFS, NAM, and European model (ecmwf) are in fairly good 
agreement that this Oregon/S Idaho wave will lift into the 
southern Panhandle this evening filling in the relative 
precipitation void over the Camas Prairie and Clearwater 
Mountains. This second wave will be largely responsible for the 
rain we receive tonight over the central and southern Idaho 
Panhandle and will reinforce the larger scale deformation band to 
the north on Thursday. A blend of the 06z/12z GFS and 15z sref was 
used to craft the forecast rain totals for tonight and tomorrow. 
We are looking for an additional 0.5 to 1.0 inches of 
precipitation over the Idaho Panhandle and far northeast 
Washington. Unfortunately, these precipitation amounts will fall 
over the same areas that have received the most substantial 
rainfall today. 


The best weather news for this multi-day rain event is that the 
flash flood threat for the central Washington burn scars should 
continue to be low. The Wenatchee, Entiat and Chelan areas have not 
received any heavy rain yet and will probably miss the deformation 
band tonight and tomorrow, too. /Gkoch 


Thursday night through Saturday night...eastward migration of 
large upper level low continues with it still centered overhead of 
eastern Washington Thursday night but Saturday night it will have 
moved to the northeast and opened up with its remnants over south 
central Canada. How this evolution of this upper level low 
affects the weather is a continuation of rain showers and 
thunderstorms, rainfall heavy at times, especially over mountain 
locations as moisture wraps around the edges and into the low and 
mesoscale disturbances rotating around its periphery continue to 
make lift available to make it happen. By Saturday morning the low 
is centered over southern Alberta and the resulting northerly flow 
on the far west edge of this low appears to have lost some 
efficiency in funneling moisture and energy into the area but is 
not entirely void of either and the air-mass is still unstable to a 
degree in the vicinity of the low. With this in mind pops show a 
substantial decrease allowing for a drying out of the Cascades and 
most lowlands along the periphery of the Columbia Basin with 
perhaps the exceptions being locations in vicinity of Spokane and 
points to the north and east including all of the Idaho Panhandle 
and majority of northeast mountains. Saturday night continues this 
trend leading to a continually drier eastern Washington forecast 
while north Idaho still holds onto a potentially wet and cloudy 
forecast. As to be expected with such a scenario involving a large 
area of low pressure overhead with persistent mention of showers 
and thunderstorms forecast temperatures remain on the cool side 
of what would be considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti 


Sunday through Monday night: a longwave trough will remain fixed 
over the western US during the period continuing to support 
unsettled weather conditions and near to below normal 
temperatures. As one upper- level low tracks east into the Great 
Plains, a second low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska toward 
the Washington coast...reloading the large scale trough and draw a rich 
subtropical moisture fetch into the inland northwest. Overall...models 
are in above average agreement regarding the unsettled weather 
pattern but as expected... do have some subtle differences 
resolving inner trough shortwave features. Utilizing loose 
agreement between the latest and previous runs would indicate one 
such shortwave feature to pass through region during the Sunday 
afternoon time-frame. This will have a strong potential to focus a 
cluster of heavier showers and thunderstorms across portions of 
southeastern Washington...northeastern or...and the Idaho Panhandle given the 
current track. This is not to say that the remainder of the County Warning Area 
will remain dry as afternoon heating away from this feature will 
likely support diurnally driven hit or miss showers and isolated 
thunderstorms...especially in the Cascades and northern mountains. 
Subtropical moisture continues to spill into the region Sunday 
night through Monday with precipitable water values surging above 
1.00". Large scale flow becomes increasingly diffluent as the next 
upper-low nears 130w and several more weaker shortwaves will 
continue to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Models do 
not indicate any particular location to remain dry as 850-700mb 
flow contains more of a southerly then westerly component and pops 
have been increased between 30-60% for just about every location. 
/Sb 


Tuesday and Wednesday...a potentially more active period will set 
up over the inland northwest, bringing possible atmospheric river 
activity to the region. Moist southwest flow will be moving 
onshore, and depending on the orientation, this could bring higher 
rainfall totals to many areas once again. It's far too early to 
pinpoint the higher threat regions, or to forecast duration, but 
some Hydro issues are possible. And with the increased cloud cover 
and potential precipitation, high temperatures were lowered a few 
degrees. Near normal readings still look like a good bet. TY 


&& 


Aviation... 
00z tafs: the initial band of rainfall is slowly pushing north and 
eastward across the region and is currently draped across western 
Montana into the northern Panhandle. A secondary band is beginning 
to form across southeast Washington into the central Idaho Panhandle where 
moderate rainfall has been reported at kpuw and klws. This band will 
slowly push northward through tonight with the western most extent 
of this band staying just east of kmwh. Isolated to scattered 
showers will form between these two bands before steadier rainfall 
begins to impact the Spokane/Coeur D'Alene areas. The boundary layer 
will remain very moist tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs expected. 
Visibilities will likely lower into MVFR category with the secondary 
rain band as it lifts northward through tonight. /Svh 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 48 56 45 61 46 70 / 100 90 60 60 20 10 
Coeur D'Alene 47 54 43 60 45 69 / 100 90 70 60 40 20 
Pullman 48 60 42 60 43 69 / 100 60 50 50 50 10 
Lewiston 51 67 46 67 50 76 / 90 50 30 50 40 10 
Colville 51 57 47 67 45 75 / 100 100 90 60 20 20 
Sandpoint 50 53 44 60 43 70 / 100 100 90 60 40 20 
Kellogg 47 52 41 57 44 66 / 100 100 70 70 60 30 
Moses Lake 53 69 49 69 50 79 / 40 60 30 30 10 10 
Wenatchee 54 67 52 68 54 78 / 40 60 40 30 10 10 
Omak 52 63 50 69 49 77 / 80 80 60 50 10 10 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$