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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 8:19 PM PDT on June 17, 2013

  An area of moderate rain showers near Olympia is associated with a band of showers stretching from the south Olympics to the south Cascades. The band is moving north at about 3o mph and should move into the Tacoma area shortly before 9 PM and Seattle by about 10 PM. A few of the showers are intense enough that there is also a chance of thunderstorms.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 48 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST WILL 
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. THE LOW 
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A 
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO WARMER AND 
DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CASCADES HAS WORKED 
OUT WELL FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SUPPRESSION OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND 
WAS PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT KILLING CELLS AS THEY MOVED NORTH INTO THE 
SOUTH SOUND. LIGHTNING WAS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO LEWIS COUNTY AND 
THE CASCADES.

YET THINGS HAVE NOW CHANGED AS A WESTERLY SURGE IN THE LOW-LEVEL 
WINDS PUSHED ONSHORE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WAS WELL 
HANDLED IN THE UW 1 1/3KM WRF. THE SURGE SEEMS TO HAVE ELIMINATED 
THE SUPPRESSION OVER PUGET SOUND AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AXIS OF A SPIRAL BAND FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW SEEM TO BE HOLDING 
TOGETHER NOW AS THEY ROTATE NORTH. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE 
ABOUT 830 PM IN THE SOUTH SOUND. THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION MESOSCALE 
MODELS (E.G.,THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR) SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME RISK OF AN 
AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS WORKING 
THEIR WAY ALL THE WAY UP THE SOUND THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. 

THE SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRETTY INTENSE ALBEIT BRIEF. RELUCTANT TO 
CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS; 
RATHER FEEL IT IS BETTER AT THIS POINT TO DEAL WITH THE ISOLATED 
CELLS USING NOWCASTS. ISSUED ONE ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONCE THE SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING THINGS 
SHOULD QUIET DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.

THE NEW MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST 
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON THROUGH ABOUT 
WEDNESDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. 
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO WRAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH MODERATE 
PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE CASCADES AND WESTERN WASHINGTON WED 
AND THU. THIS ALL HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. COLMAN

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN 
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE CWA...WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PUGET 
SOUND AREA AND THE CASCADES UNTIL 06Z. 

BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR KOLM AT 0330Z MOVING NORTH TO NEAR KSEA BY 05Z 
KPAE 06Z THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. VISIBILITIES 
LOWERING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1 SM WITH THESE SHOWERS. CEILINGS 
LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET. CEILINGS REBOUNDING TO AOA 5000 FEET 
WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER THE BAND PASSES THROUGH 
THE AREA. CEILINGS REMAINING AOA 5000 FEET INTO TUESDAY MORNING 
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE 1000 TO 2000 
FEET RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. FELTON

KSEA...BAND OF SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINAL ABOUT 05Z WITH  
VISIBILITY LOWERING DOWN TO 4 SM AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 
FEET. BAND MOVING QUICKLY NORTH WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 07Z. 
CEILINGS AOA 5000 FEET THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS 
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS BY 06Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF PUSH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS 
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUND THIS EVENING BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY 20 
KNOTS OR LESS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
MORNING KEEPING WINDS BELOW SCA IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT 
OVERNIGHT.  

A BROAD LOW PRES CENTER /1012MB/ WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND TUE 
NIGHT. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL 
MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. 
FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML