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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 48 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 45 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GIVE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW 
WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY 
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY FILLS AND WEAKENS. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHOWERS 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER 
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE 
LOW SO ONE BATCH IS MOVING EAST TO WEST OVER PUGET SOUND WHILE 
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SOUTH COAST WEST TO EAST. KSEA HAS HAD A 
PERSISTENT SHOWER THIS MORNING WITH OVER FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH SO 
FAR. TODAY WILL DEFINITELY BE SHOWERY...WITH SOMEWHAT FEWER SHOWERS 
OVER THE NORTH PART. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON THE 
SHOWER THREAT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. 
WITH SUBSTANTIAL PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY 
TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE FAR NORTH. 

PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER HAS RECEIVED NEARLY A FOOT OF NEW SNOW 
SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 2000 FEET AROUND 
THE MOUNTAIN...WITH ACCUMULATION OCCURRING AT LONGMIRE. WILL SEE HOW 
THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL CASCADES GOING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON 
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT GOING AND AGAIN MAKE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TICK 
UP A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE.

THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND...MODELS SHOW 
CONSIDERABLY LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE 
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE MORE SUN AND 
HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WILL TEND TO 
RETROGRADE TO JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY THEN SHIFT BACK INLAND SUNDAY. 
THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN DIURNAL MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH 
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL 
DAY WEEKEND. MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER IS UP IN THE AIR AS ALL MODELS 
BRING A BRIEF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MEMORIAL DAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER UPPER LOW OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. THERE IS 
LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THESE FEATURES SEVERAL DAYS OUT. 
FORECASTS SATURDAY ONWARD WERE NOT ALTERED EARLY THIS MORNING. 
ALBRECHT 

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
THROUGH TONIGHT...CENTERED MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON OR SOUTH 
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE 
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY 
AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING MAINLY OVER THE PUGET SOUND REGION...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR... 
AND THE CASCADES. THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OBSCURED.

THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS 
MORNING. IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE 
PUGET SOUND REGION...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH 
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO 
CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS... 
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE GENERALLY AN IMPROVING TREND WITH LOW-END 
VFR CONDITIONS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. SOME DETERIORATION IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 6-12 KT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...THEN BACKING TO SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KSEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MCDONNAL 

&&

.MARINE...A 1008 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHWEST TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND 
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE 
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH 
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT 
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS 
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INLAND WATERS ZONES AS WELL. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER CONSIDERABLY IN THIS REGARD.

IN ADDITION WE HAVE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER 
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG 
WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AT GRAYS HARBOR.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF 
JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DURING 
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 
       THIS EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR 
       THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML