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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
404 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
weak low pressure tracks across the region today through tonight 
as a cold front pushes south. The low moves off the coast 
Wednesday while the cold front settles across the Carolinas. High 
pressure builds into the region from the north Thursday through 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
per latest water vapor...shortwave has reached extreme western Virginia. At 
the surface...cold front has made very little southern push from earlier 
today as a stationary front remains aligned from the lower MS 
valley into the middle Atlantic region. Wave along the stationary 
boundary observed on radar/observation located over central Virginia has helped 
enhance convection this afternoon north and west of Richmond. This 
will continue to be the case through the afternoon and into this 
evening as waves along the front continue to impact the region. 
The most prominent wave is currently located over eastern Tennessee and is 
associated with cooling cloud tops. Surface wave will continue to 
strengthen as it progresses eastward across northern NC/southern Virginia late this 
afternoon...aided by the aforementioned upper level shortwave. 
This will push the front eastward across the area. As this 
occurs...better precipitation coverage expected through the evening. 
Theta-E advection and temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the 
low 70s will maintain a marginally unstable airmass (1000-1200 
j/kg cape) across eastern Virginia into northestern NC. Marginal low level lapse 
rates and low level west-southwesterly flow of 30-40 knots may produce brief gusty 
winds up to 40 miles per hour under the strongest storms. Over central 
Virginia...weak lapse rates due to deep moisture (precip waters ~2 
inches) will prevent stronger winds from mixing down. Weak to 
marginal shear will inhibit any organized convection. The main 
threat will continue to be heavy rainfall as precipitation water remain 
around 150% of normal. Total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will generally range from 
one half inch to one inch. Secondary shortwave will reach northwestern Virginia 
late tonight...helping push the front offshore. Best moisture will 
also be shunted offshore...but remnant moisture and subtle forcing 
for ascent will result in continued showers through the 
overnight...especially along the coast. Mild tonight with temperatures in 
the middle/upper 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... 
trough axis will locate along the middle Atlantic coast Wednesday...as a 
strong high pressure ridge builds over the plains. Will maintain 
slight chance probability of precipitation Wednesday along the coast for light showers as 
subtle forcing for ascent and remnant moisture remain. Confluence 
aloft will allow cool high pressure to build over the Great Lakes 
region...extending into the middle Atlantic region. Combination of 
northwesterly flow...lower heights and decreasing low level thickness 
values will translate to temperatures in the low 80s Wednesday afternoon. 
Remnant moisture and steep low level lapse rates will provide for 
generally partly cloudy skies. North/northeasterly winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Onshore 
winds along the coast will keep temperatures generally in the middle/upper 
70s over the Maryland/Virginia Eastern Shore (thanks to ocean temperatures still in the 
upper 60s) and along the immediate coast. 


Baggy middle level trough and northwesterly flow will continue to impact the 
middle Atlantic region through Friday. Surface high pressure will slide 
offshore thurs-Fri. Onshore winds will continue through Friday. 
Front currently impacting the region will stall off the southeast 
coast...with best moisture remaining well south of the region. 
Models suggest potential for diurnally driven convection over the 
higher terrain...but expect precipitation to stay west of the forecast area. Temperatures will 
remain slightly below normal as northwesterly flow and onshore winds 
continue (mid 80s...cooler along the immediate coast). Cool 
morning temperatures through the short term with temperatures generally in the 
low 60s. Some inland locales (especially over the eastern Virginia piedmont) 
will fall into the upper 50s. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
a rather benign pattern is expected this weekend into early next 
week as high pressure slowly drops S off the middle-Atlantic coast. 
There is very little potential for shower/thunderstorm development 
due to a lack of large scale forcing and any surface focusing 
mechanisms. A general shift of the low-level flow from southeast-SW will 
produce a steady warming trends with highs rising into the middle/upper 
80s Saturday...to the upper 80s Sunday...and eventually to the upper 
80s/low 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures should trend 
upward from around 65 early in the period to the upper 60s/low 70s 
late in the period. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop this afternoon 
and evening as a cold front slowly moves across the area. The main 
impact will be localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Expect 
ceilings and visible to lower briefly into MVFR (and possibly ifr) 
conditions under stronger storm cores. Convective activity is 
expected to wane after midnight as the front pushes offshore by 
daybreak Wednesday morning. Fog may be possible throughout the 
region late tonight into the morning as well. 


Showers are expected to linger near the coast Wednesday morning 
before the front moves farther out to sea. Otherwise...conditions 
will start to dry out and skies will gradually clear from 
northwest to southeast as high pressure builds into the middle 
Atlantic region from the northwest. High pressure and VFR 
conditions will then dominate the weather pattern for the rest of 
the week into the weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
a frontal boundary is aligned SW-NE across the middle-Atlantic region 
this afternoon with several waves of low pressure along the front. 
The westernmost area of low pressure over west-central NC will lift east-northeast 
overnight and pull off the coast early Wednesday morning. A brief 
shallow northerly cold air advection surge should follow as the low pulls off the 
coast. There is a tendency for models to under-estimate these type 
of surges...so a short-duration low-end Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the 
Bay/lower James/sound from 08-14z (4-10am). As for the ocean...the 
wind will progressively become NE through the day Wednesday as high 
pressure builds off of Cape Cod. At this time the strength of the 
flow is not expected to be strong enough to builds seas to 5ft...so 
no Small Craft Advisory at this time. The high lingers off the northeast coast 
through the end of the week...as a weak area of low pressure remains 
quasi-stationary off the NC Outer Banks. This will maintain steady 
10-15kt onshore flow...which will help maintain 3-4ft seas. The high 
slowly sinks S off the coast during the weekend with the wind 
shifting to S and remaining at or below 15kt. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 am to 10 am EDT Wednesday for 
anz630>634-638. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...alb 
near term...Sam 
short term...Sam 
long term...ajz 
aviation...bmd 
marine...ajz