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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
340 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will drift south into the area today. Weak high 
pressure will build into the area from the north later Wednesday 
night and Thursday...resulting in somewhat drier weather into the 
end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 330 am EDT Wednesday... 


Pair of fronts currently across the region. First with the deep 
convection has moved south of US and was located from northern Georgia to NE 
NC early this morning. The secondary front with drier air behind it 
was layed out from cvg-crw-nrn Virginia. Some lower dewpoints have seeped 
southward into the mountains...with temperatures close to them allowing fog to form 
given wet ground and scattering out of clouds. This fog will be 
lingering through middle morning before dissipating. 


Showers have been scarce and mainly north of the mountains of southeast WV this 
morning. The 00z NAM/local WRF along with Storm Prediction Center WRF was followed 
through the day given its initialization of the few showers. There 
is agreement that those earlier showers will leave enough of a 
boundary to refire more by midday across the Alleghany front east to 
the Blue Ridge...then flow turns north sending the showers south 
across the Virginia foothills and Piedmont with instability increasing 
this afternoon allowing for some thunderstorms to form. At the 
moment confidence not high enough to go likely probability of precipitation and think will 
see more scattered in nature to the convection...but still looks 
like areas from Hot Springs and Lexington Virginia south through the 
Roanoke valley and into Southside have a better chance today than 
areas further west. Have broadbrushed some lower chances in the west 
with little to no coverage west of I-77. By late afternoon into 
evening the flow turns more east and models turn showers more to the 
southwest across the NC counties. Once the sun sets...think showers 
and storms weaken but enough convergence along dying front to keep a 
few showers around until midnight across the NC counties/Virginia border 
counties. Models even hinting of keeping a few showers around the 
Blue Ridge into Thursday morning but given the lack of coverage this 
morning the threat should be gone after midnight. 


Again really moist ground and clearing in places with light/calm wind 
should lead to the development of fog. 


Temperatures forecasted to be a little cooler than MOS as the flow turns 
north. Tricky given cloud cover where there will be some periods of 
sunshine and clouds...especially across the eastern County Warning Area this afternoon. 
Looking at highs from the middle to upper 70s across the west to lower 
80s southeast. 


Tonight...will be cooler but wet ground will keep it from dropping 
further so looking at lows in the middle to upper 50s west to lower 60s 
east. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... 
as of 240 am EDT Wednesday... 


Surface high pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will continue to 
extend inland through the period and gradually strengthen in 
response to building 500 mb heights by the weekend. This will allow for 
a low level easterly fetch around the high...with the flow veering 
more southeast along and west of the Blue Ridge espcly Thursday into Thursday night. 
Models continue to show a low level convergence zone along the 
mountains Thursday...that will gradually shift westward Friday in 
response to drier advection out east...and more of a NE wind 
component driven by possible low pressure off the Outer Banks. Any 
organized or widespread convection likely hindered by continued 
drying aloft as well as with increasing subsidence with low level 
moisture underneath a weak inversion aloft. Appears best 
diurnally driven chances Thursday afternoon...so running with low chance 
scattered probability of precipitation western third...then more isolated coverage mainly I- 
77 corridor on Friday. Otherwise more clouds west early Thursday with range 
from pc west to mainly sunny east Thursday...and again Friday when 
should be more sun all sections. 


Low level drying should push dewpoints lower...and make for lower 
humidity through the period...with a good diurnal spread in temperatures 
from the upper 70s-middle 80s for highs...to pleasant 50s/low 60s for 
lows most nights. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
as of 345 PM EDT Tuesday... 


Moderating temperatures expected over the weekend and into early 
next week as the upper level ridge continues to build...850 temperatures 
creeping toward +2oc for Monday and Tuesday. This suggests surface 
temperatures will top out mainly in the 80sf...testing 90f degrees for 
the urban areas. No real focus for deep convection during the 
period except for convergence over the mountains...so kept any precipitation 
threat mainly diurnal and primarily targeted to the mountains 


&& 


Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
as of 1240 am EDT Wednesday... 


Deeper moisture has exited the area tonight ahead of a weak 
secondary cold front just north of region that will drift south 
overnight. Few remaining rain showers ahead of the boundary likely to fade 
upon approach from the north so expecting overall lack of precipitation 
through daybreak. However flying conditions in the wake of the 
heavier rainfall from Tuesday will deteriorate overnight as areas 
of fog/stratus develop in the valleys and out east espcly around 
kdan. This should result in areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities in 
fog with kroa only seeing a period of MVFR late. 


Expect low conditions to gradually improve to VFR with heating 
Wednesday morning before the flow slowly turns more southeast allowing broken 4-6k 
feet cumulus ceilings to redevelop espcly along the Blue Ridge. Eastern 
locations such as klyh/kdan may see low ceilings/visibilities hang on longer 
under light NE flow. Latest models then suggest some late day 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain potential mainly kroa/kbcb so including a thunderstorms in the vicinity there. 
Otherwise leaving out precipitation mention given isolated nature elsewhere. 
Leftover clouds and widely scattered convection may linger into 
Wednesday night along the Blue Ridge corridor with most of this 
coverage likely ending up south of the terminals before ending 
later Wednesday night. Added fog then likely after midnight...mostly 
beyond the end of the valid taf period so wont include mention. 


For Thursday into the weekend...continued diurnal 
convection...especially along the Appalachians...with locally 
brief MVFR-IFR ceilings/visibilities in thunderstorms and rain. Areas of MVFR-IFR visibilities 
br...locally IFR fog...also possible during the morning hours. Otherwise 
overall VFR during the daytime hours before/after any ridge 
oriented convection develops. 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wp 
near term...wp 
short term...jh 
long term...PM 
aviation...jc/jh/kk