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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1137 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY LINE FROM THE BIG HORNS TO
KCPR/KDGW.

DRY LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE 
STALLING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW PRESSURE WILL 
SWING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS 
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS EVENING...STRONG 
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNTAPPED. CAPPING 
CONTINUES TO ERODE...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING...ANY STORMS THAT DO 
FIRE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. IN ADDITION TO CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000
J/KG...DECENT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR THE STORMS THAT FIRE TO BECOME
SEVERE. OTHERWISE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY AS MORE WAVES ROTATE AROUND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 
DEVELOPING ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY EAST OF 
THE CWA ALONG WITH THE PRECIP. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S 
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE MID 80S OVER THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE 
BLACK HILLS. A STRONG WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER 
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING INTO EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY 
BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT THE BULK OF FORCING AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN 
IN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD 
AS Theta-e ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW 
DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE. WITH MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...LOOKS
LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND SHOWERS 
AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST. 
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND SYSTEM. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY 
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. A COUPLE 
OF RIDGE RIDERS MIGHT BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TO PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LL JET RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY 07Z. THE COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER NW SD INTO THE LEE OF THE BH...INCLUDING RAP.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC