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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 41 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Medford or 
313 PM PDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Short term...an upper low will remain over the region through 
Friday...weakening and shifting north slightly on Saturday. This 
low will gradually fill and the air mass will gradually warm. 
Continued moisture and shortwaves will move into the County Warning Area over the 
next few days and bring showers. The preferred area for shower 
activity will be across the coast and the Umpqua as well as the 
southern Oregon Cascades with areas of showers moving into other 
west side locations and east of the Cascades at times. 


A shortwave is moving inland this afternoon and evening and is 
bringing scattered showers to areas from the Cascades west. 
Shower activity is expected to increase across the west side in 
this afternoon and evening and spread into some east side locations as 
well. Some of the showers may bring small hail and gusty winds 
this afternoon into this evening. Models show some marginal 
instability in Northern Lake County. Expect mainly scattered 
showers to develop there but think the chance for any 
thunderstorms is low. 


Shower activity is expected to continue into the evening for many 
locations with showers decreasing overnight. Cold overnight 
temperatures are expected again tonight into Thursday morning. 
Skies will likely stay cloudy overnight with some partial 
clearing over inland areas during the early morning. Temperatures 
Thursday morning will likely be similar or just a couple degrees 
warmer than this morning. Partial clearing though may allow more 
frost formation Thursday morning. Have included mention of patchy 
frost in the western Oregon valleys including the rogue and 
Illinois valleys and areas of frost into the Shasta Valley in 
California. Over the Klamath basin expect freezing and below 
freezing conditions. 


On Thursday...expect some scattered showers during the day. Then 
models show increased shower activity during the evening and 
continuing into Friday morning as a moderate vorticity maximum associated 
with the upper low moves into the area. The best chance for showers 
will be from the southern Oregon Cascades west with isolated to 
scattered showers east of the Cascades and into portions of 
northern California. 


Showers are expected to decrease Friday afternoon and evening as 
the shortwave moves northeast and out the area. The upper 
trough remains over the region Friday night and Saturday...although 
weaker and centered further north. This will bring the potential 
for additional areas of scattered showers on Saturday. Models have 
trended lower on the shower activity though so have lowered the 
chance of precipitation for Saturday. Weak instability still is 
present east of the Cascades so have kept a slight chance for 
thunderstorms...mainly in Lake County...Saturday afternoon and 
evening. 


Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday night... 


The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) still agree on the character of the long term 
forecast. The upper level pattern shows a continuation of a longwave 
trough with a series of disturbances to affect our region from the 
weekend all the way through next week. Temperatures will mostly 
range from slightly below normal to near normal through the period. 


Despite the agreement and high confidence on the big picture...the 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions begin to diverge on Saturday and differences 
become significant already by Saturday night. On Saturday night, the 
ec retrogrades the main upper trough to offshore of Washington while 
the GFS is more similar to its solution from yesterday with the main 
trough moving northeast to inland British Columbia and a secondary 
lobe over our area. The main effect is that the probability of east 
side showers and a few east side evening thunderstorms is higher with 
the GFS while the westerly flow from the ec would favor scattered 
showers on the west side of the Cascades. 


The GFS solution is warmer than the ec on Sunday. I went with a 
model blend for the temperature forecast. Both models have some 
version of a weak front crossing the area. The ec depicted front 
would be stronger but focused north of the Umpqua Divide while the 
GFS solution would bring more widespread but mainly light showers. 


The model solutions for Memorial Day have changed signifcantly with 
the GFS upper level pattern becoming more progressive and the European model (ecmwf) 
less progressive. In the European model (ecmwf) case...the upper trough lingers 
over the Pacific northwest with a cold front moving southeast 
toward our area while the GFS shows brief weak ridging Sunday 
night then the next upper trough already approaching the coast. 
The commonality is that both models have trended cooler and 
wetter. There is still a sizeable possibility that Monday morning 
will be dry. But I have raised the probability of rain for Monday 
and it remains above climatological normal through Tuesday. A 
moist onshore flow is forecast to continue on Wednesday with a 
slight chance to chance of light showers. /Dw 


&& 


Aviation...a weakening disturbance is moving across the area 
this afternoon. Scattered showers...areas of MVFR ceilings and areas 
of obscured mountains are expected through the evening. Areas of 
MVFR ceilings will persist near the coast and in the Umpqua basin late 
tonight through Thursday morning. Otherwise...conditions will 
improve to VFR late tonight. Another disturbance will reach the 
coast by Thursday afternoon. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am PDT Thursday for orz029. 


California...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am PDT Thursday for caz084. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 
11 PM PDT Thursday for pzz350-356. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Thursday 
for pzz370-376. 


$$ 


Cirrocumulus