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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 48 °
• Rain Showers

• Saturday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of Rain

• Sunday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
235 PM PDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Short term...the upper low remains over the region today and 
tonight. As the center of the low swings southward along the 
coast today then inland this evening and tonight expect additional 
showers to move into the area. On Friday the low center will shift 
northeast then a broad trough remains over the region on Saturday 
and Sunday. Embedded with the trough...another shortwave is 
forecast to move towards the coast Saturday and inland Saturday 
night and Sunday. This will bring additional showers Saturday with 
increasing shower activity on Sunday. Also during the afternoon 
and evening today and again on Saturday and Sunday there is a 
slight chance for thunderstorms for location east of the Cascades. 


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have develop east of 
the Cascades this afternoon while from the Cascades west...showers 
are expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening as 
the upper low center moves into central Oregon. The best chances 
for shower activity will be over Coos and Douglas counties as well 
as into the southern Oregon Cascades with isolated to scattered 
showers in other areas of the County Warning Area. Also of note is that another 
cool night is expected east of the Cascades tonight into early 
Friday morning with low temperatures expected near or just above 
freezing. In the Klamath basin...do not expect widespread freezing 
conditions tonight and areas that reach freezing may just briefly 
dip into the low 30s so have not issued a freeze warning for this 
area. 


As the low center tracks to the northeast on Friday expect 
decreasing showers across the area by afternoon. Models continue to 
indicate a broad trough will remain over the region through the 
weekend. This is expected to bring mild temperatures with highs 
near or just below normal. Chances for showers will continue as 
well on the weekend. Another shortwave is forecast to move towards 
the area Saturday then inland Sunday. Ahead of the shortwave 
expect some scattered showers to develop Saturday afternoon and 
evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms is also 
possible...mainly east of the Cascades on Saturday. By Sunday 
models indicate continued moisture and increasing instability. 
Expect most areas to see a chance for showers Sunday with 
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening from the 
Cascades east. 


Long term...Memorial Day through Thursday...confidence remains high 
in the overall weather pattern in the extended as gefs/European model (ecmwf) 
ensemble means both focus a trough over the western United States 
with below normal heights. While it won't be as cool as it was 
earlier this week, temperatures overall for the period will likely 
remain slightly below normal. That translates to upper 60s and lower 
70s for highs in Medford. Timing and strength details of individual 
short waves moving into the northwest will be difficult, but the 
strongest is likely to arrive at the coast Monday morning, then push 
inland during the afternoon/evening. The 00z deterministic run of 
the European model (ecmwf) was weaker and farther south with this feature, but the 
12z run has come more in line with the 12z GFS (though still is a 
bit weaker and farther south). Even so, felt confident enough here 
to increase probability of precipitation during this time, since that is where the focus of 
precipitation likely will be. Heights will rise a bit Tuesday, but remain 
below normal, so have maintained slight chance to chance probability of precipitation. Models 
showing another short wave approaching the coast Wednesday into 
Thursday in the moist westerly onshore flow. This should keep the 
probability of showers highest along and west of the Cascades. 
Beyond that, the GFS ensembles carve another deep trough/closed low 
over the area/just offshore next weekend, while the European model (ecmwf) is flatter 
and more zonal. Spilde 




&& 


Aviation...low pressure to the north will continue to bring some 
light rain along with a mix of VFR and MVFR north of the Umpqua 
Divide and along the north coast the rest of this afternoon 
through tonight. Mostly VFR is expected south of the Umpqua Divide 
through tonight, but we cannot rule out some MVFR in isolated 
heavier showers this afternoon, then again toward sunrise over the 
valleys. Partial mountain obscuration is also likely, especially 
across the northern half of the County Warning Area. East of the Cascades, 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring this 
afternoon...most numerous along and east of winter rim southward 
to the Warners. Some MVFR ceilings are likely in the heavier showers, 
but these will tend to diminish after sunset with VFR prevailing 
once again. Spilde 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am PDT Friday 
for pzz370-376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 am PDT Friday 
for pzz350. 


$$ 


Cirrocumulus