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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 46 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana 
926 PM MDT Friday may 24 2013 


Short term...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sunday... 
made some tweaks to some grids but they were minor...mainly to 
account for current conditions. Rest of forecast looked good. Jamba 


Previous discussion... 
an upper level trough of low pressure to the west will make for 
unsettled weather for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. 


Showers that brought light rain to portions of northeast Montana 
this morning have lifted into Canada as a low pressure center 
deepens over southern Alberta. Drier air and more stable 
conditions have built in behind the showers...making for mostly 
clear to partly cloudy skies this evening and overnight. West winds 
will lighten around sunset...before switching around to the 
southeast overnight tonight. 


Saturday continues to look favorable for thunderstorm 
development during the afternoon. Southeast winds will strengthen 
through the day...ushering in higher dewpoints out of the Great 
Plains. This moist environment will interact with disturbances in 
a southwest flow aloft provided by an upper trough over the 
Pacific northwest creating excellent potential for showers and 
thunderstorms. Storms east of a Opheim to Glasgow to Jordan line 
will have the best potential to become organized and severe thanks 
to a moderate shear environment driven by the low level southeast 
flow. This potential will linger into Saturday evening...with 
somewhat weaker but ongoing thunderstorms after midnight. 


Sunday a similar pattern will continue...but the best potential 
for organized storms will lie across areas south of the Missouri 
River. Instability does not look quite as impressive as 
Saturday...but this system is dynamic and convective parameters 
could improve as we get further into the weekend. Gilchrist 




Long term...Sunday night through Friday... 


Model trends continue to advertise some form of low pressure 
trough influence over northeast Montana throughout most of the extended 
forecast period. This will likely lead to a long period of active 
and unsettled weather. Made some small adjustments to the probability of precipitation 
grids when extended model consensus showed some run to run 
consistency. If there will be any kind of dry period between 
storms...it may be from Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 
when the trough splits into two lobes...one southward toward The 
Four Corners region and the other northward over the Canadian 
prairie...which would likely allow a brief period of relatively 
calm conditions under a small scale ridge from the southeast as 
indicated in the long term model height solutions. Bmickelson 


Previous long term discussion...upper trough along the West Coast 
will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the extended 
period...resulting in unsettled weather and near normal 
temperatures. 


Closed low currently over the Pacific northwest expected to lift 
into western Canada during the weekend with a more disorganized 
pattern developing with greater model spread. Overall pattern is 
for West Coast trough to dig into the Desert Southwest with some 
splitting occurring as another upper low slides from Alaska toward 
the Pacific northwest. There continues to be some hints in the 
of ridge tilting back into the northern plains around middle week to 
diminish convection but with model spread kept probability of precipitation near climatology. 
Precipitation chances will increase again toward the end of the 
forecast period with broad upper trough spreading east. Ebert 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions are expected for most of the taf cycle...before 
convective activity begins Saturday afternoon. Initially...IFR 
conditions or worse will be likely for kgdv and ksdy during the 
afternoon hours amid strong to severe thunderstorms which will 
spread to all remaining taf sites through Saturday night. Bmickelson 


&& 


Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Glasgow