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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 59 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana 
328 am MDT Sat may 25 2013 


Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Monday... 
shortwaves on southwest flow aloft will interact with quasi- 
stationary front over eastern Montana the next 3 days to bring 
several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The southwest flow 
aloft will be between an upper trough/low over the Pacific 
northwest and an upper ridge over Minnesota. The southeast winds 
on the east side of the front today will bring increasingly moist 
air into eastern Montana which will combine with daytime heating 
to make the atmosphere more unstable as the day wears on. With the 
frontal boundary expected to be in Phillips and Petroleum counties 
this afternoon...the best instability will be to the east. With 
lifted indicies falling to near -4 this afternoon and cape 
increasing to 1000-1500 j/kg...conditions look favorable for the 
development of severe thunderstorms that will linger into evening. 


The likelihood of severe weather will diminish with the loss of 
daytime heating tonight but showers and thunderstorms will remain 
likely with the front remaining in the area. 


The possibility of severe weather will repeat itself on Sunday 
with little change in the pattern and possibly even Monday as the 
frontal boundary remains in the area with southwest flow aloft. 
Will maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms through 
the short term along with a mention of severe weather on Sunday. 
Forrester 


Long term...Monday night through Saturday... 
the upper trough that will begin to affect the region this weekend 
will continue to have an influence through next week. The upper 
closed low will slowly churn shortwave energy out through the 
weekend before an upper jet maximum off the Pacific begins to dig the 
upper trough further south and east into the Desert Southwest on 
Tuesday. When this happens...a shortwave trough will split off the 
main flow into Canada...and leave the region over brief short 
ridging late Tuesday into Wednesday. The brief ridging period 
will be just about the only break from continued chances for 
precipitation for the remainder of the long term. 


The upper jet maximum will continue to push the trough to have a more 
negative tilt with each day...before the jet maximum finally 
progresses through the base of the trough by Friday and begins 
moving further eastward. This will continue to place the region 
over favorable precipitation chances for just about all of next week. By 
next weekend...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) disagree slightly as the GFS 
wants to quickly erode brief ridging and allow another Pacific 
northwest low to bring more precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) wants to keep 
ridging around a bit longer...and have a closed low possibly ride 
down the Pacific coast. Either way...before that occurs...it 
appears a wet and unsettled pattern is in store for the long term. 
Barnwell 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected for most of the taf cycle...before 
convective activity begins this afternoon. Initially...IFR conditions 
or worse will be likely for kgdv and ksdy during the afternoon 
hours amid strong to severe thunderstorms...which will spread to all 
remaining taf sites through tonight and possibly into the early 
morning hours on Sunday. Bmickelson/Barnwell 


&& 


Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Glasgow