Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: -40 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 54 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
423 am MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Short term...valid for today and Thursday... 


... 
An approaching upper level low will pivot a negatively 
tilted shortwave across western Montana this afternoon. This will 
push a surface low...currently positioned across southeast 
Idaho...across the forecast area into eastern Montana by tonight. 
The accompanying surge of southwesterly wind behind the low will 
push very dry air across the southern portions of the forecast 
area by this afternoon...with the moist Gulf moisture tap wrapping 
around the northern side of the low into the ggw and tfx forecast 
areas. Expect to see dew points crash into the 30s and 40s across 
southern portions of the forecast area as mixing becomes 
established in the late morning. Our northern tier of counties 
will remain on the gradient between the dry air and much more 
moist air and should retain dew points in the 50s. These higher 
dew points will support the better potential for convection and 
even some severe weather in the form of hail and strong winds. 
However...farther south toward Billings the LCLs will be almost 
15k feet with all the cape extremely elevated. Current thinking is 
that the best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will 
progress from the Crazy Mountains to Harlowton to Roundup to 
northern Rosebud County by this evening. However for the southern 
tier of the forecast area...expect only isolated dry thunderstorms 
which could produce some gusty winds. Expect the convective threat 
will end across the forecast area by 03 to 06z as the threat 
shifts north. 


..tonight and Thursday... 
The surface cold front will progress across the forecast area 
from the late afternoon in the west to after midnight in the east. 
Cooler air will push in behind the front bringing allowing 
temperatures to be cooler than last night in central and western 
zones. Winds will stay up overnight in the east keeping overnight 
lows in the middle to upper 50s. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow 
in the Post frontal environment with 700mb temperatures crashing 
around +13c to down to around +5c. Thus expect high temperatures 
to stay mainly in the 70s Thursday. The upper level low will still 
be positioned to our west on Thursday and a new surface low will 
develop over northern Wyoming going into Thursday evening. This 
allows easterly low level winds to increase the moisture over 
southeast Montana. This combined with the inverted surface trough 
across eastern Montana...expect to see an increased chance of 
developing some showers by Thursday evening. 


Church 


Long term...valid for Friday...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue... 


Slowing trend of transit of the upper low through the area is 
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday 
and Sunday but helping make later periods drier. Friday will still 
be seeing low level moisture recovering so there is a threat of 
convection but precipitation amounts will be light. 


Friday night the upper low digs into southwestern Montana and 
really gives a chance for moisture to deepen across central and 
eastern Montana at the lower levels despite southwesterly flow 
aloft still trying to advect in drier air. With strong diffluence 
and plains moisture wrapping back into the Yellowstone valley 
looks like a good chance to get wet. Saturday in particular will 
have to be watched for the strength of storms with favorable shear 
but instability may be limited due to cool boundary layer 
temperatures. 


Sunday the upper low ejects into eastern Montana and wrap around 
moisture continues to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms 
to mainly the eastern half of the area. Temperatures on Friday 
through Sunday could run 10 degrees below normal especially if 
clouds dominate and enough dynamic cooling occurs. 


Monday and beyond is drying as flow becomes westerly and next 
upstream system is prognosticated to eject to the north and west of 
Montana. Borsum 
&& 


Aviation... 


Expect dry conditions until midday. Isolated thunderstorms will 
develop over the mountains in the afternoon and move into western 
lower elevations including klvm but activity will remain west of 
kbil. Biggest threat will be gusty winds from storms. A front will 
move through the area after 00z bringing strong gusty west winds. 
Borsum 


&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Today Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday 
------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 093 052/077 052/072 052/069 051/078 054/082 056/082 
1/T 11/b 23/T 34/T 41/b 11/b 22/T 
lvm 085 043/072 041/069 042/067 046/079 046/082 049/081 
3/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 50/b 02/T 22/T 
hdn 095 053/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 052/083 
1/T 11/b 32/T 34/T 41/b 11/b 22/T 
mls 096 058/081 055/076 056/076 055/080 056/083 057/083 
1/north 21/b 44/T 34/T 43/T 11/b 11/b 
4bq 095 054/081 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 055/084 
1/north 11/b 44/T 34/T 52/T 11/b 22/T 
bhk 091 057/080 054/076 055/074 054/076 054/080 057/082 
1/north 21/b 36/T 55/T 53/T 11/b 22/T 
shr 090 048/078 050/073 048/073 047/076 049/081 050/082 
1/T 11/b 32/T 24/T 41/b 11/b 11/b 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings