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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 46 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 52 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
913 PM MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Update... 
thunderstorm activity has shifted to our north and as of 03z is 
located over Musselshell County and shifting slowly eastward along 
nose of easterly low level jet. Satellite imagery shows very 
impressive diffluence as dynamic shortwave lifts through south 
central Montana. 700mb temperatures on the order of 12-14c providing a very 
strong cap across our east to this point...and surge of dry Wyoming 
air already prevented convection in our south including the pryors 
and big horns. Convection currently approaching northwest Rosebud County 
is moving into the capped airmass...but as middle level temperatures cool 
and surface front pushes east...convective chances will increase 
across our north central to northeast parts as the night 
progresses...and certainly low level shear/instability are 
favorable per east winds and dew points in the upper 50s. Will keep 
with risk of thunderstorms mentioned across our north including 
Forsyth...Miles City and Baker...though do not think convection 
will reach as far east as Fallon County until after 06z...and thunderstorm 
coverage will be greater to our north. Otherwise... subsidence 
and strong low level downsloping are allowing for weather to quiet down 
from Livingston to Billings and southward. Have cleaned out probability of precipitation 
considerably in these areas... and there is no more risk of severe 
weather here. Gusty Post frontal west-northwest winds will continue through the 
night as Pacific airmass surges into the region. Jkl 


&& 


Short term...valid for Thursday and Friday... 


Potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening 
will be more widespread than previously thought as dewpoints were 
in the 50s over much of the area. Shear will increase from west to east 
across the area this afternoon and evening. Dewpoints in the 50s 
were helping to feed high convective available potential energy...especially in the east. Surface 
convective available potential energy ranged from 500 to 2000 j/kg from west to east across the area at 
19z. Will have plenty of lift from diffluent flow aloft...cold 
front moving through west Montana...and strong shortwave seen in water 
vapor imagery...rotating around the base of the negatively tilted 
trough over the Pacific northwest. A severe threat will progress from west 
to east across the region through the evening as dynamics move east. 
Only hindrance to severe weather will be where the S to SW flow 
will advect drier air into the region. Gusty winds will be 
possible in these areas...currently expected from kbil S and 
east...but will need to watch this evolving situation carefully this 
afternoon. Expect severe weather to exit the area after 06z as 
cold front moves east. BUFKIT soundings had a strong wind shift 
behind the front with wind speeds well into the 30s. 


Upper low will rotate slowly into the region Thursday through Friday 
night. Downslope flow will compete with upper dynamics for 
precipitation chances on Thursday. Continued the low chances over and 
near the mountains with just a slight mention of thunder as 
airmass will be much more stable than today/S airmass. A secondary 
cold front will pass through the area Thursday night which will bring 
scattered showers to the area. Models differed on placement of 
precipitation Friday through Friday night. Dynamics aloft and inverted 
surface trough over the east will bring a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms to the area. Leaned on the sref for pop forecast. 


Temperatures will be around seasonable values Thursday and Friday. Arthur 


Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed... 


Extended models in fairly good agreement so did not make any 
significant changes with this forecast issuance. Large upper low 
currently over the Pacific northwest will slowly shift east across 
the Canadian border Saturday and Saturday night and be situated 
just north of North Dakota during the day Sunday. At the same 
time...a few disturbances will get pulled northeast with a 
southwest flow aloft bringing very good chances for showers and 
thunderstorms to the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday 
night. Best chances will be near the Dakota borders where chances 
have been increased to likely Saturday into Saturday night. The 
upper low shifts further east Sunday leaving our forecast area in 
a broad southwest flow aloft. At this time...no big disturbances 
look to influence our area resulting in mainly dry conditions with 
possibly an isolated shower/thunderstorm through the period. 
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal for the weekend 
before warming to above normal readings by early to middle next week. 
Hooley 
&& 


Aviation... 


Thunderstorm activity has ended at klvm and kbil...but could see 
isolated activity reach kmls and kbhk later tonight. Brief MVFR to 
IFR can be expected in the thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR will 
prevail with gusty west-northwest winds across the lower elevations behind a 
Pacific cold front. These winds will continue into Thursday...with 
a weakening trend through the afternoon. Jkl 


&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday 
----------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 051/077 052/073 052/069 051/078 054/082 058/082 059/082 
11/u 33/T 34/T 41/b 11/b 22/T 21/u 
lvm 042/070 041/072 042/067 046/079 046/082 051/081 054/085 
23/T 34/T 35/T 40/b 22/T 22/T 21/u 
hdn 051/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 054/083 058/083 
10/u 33/T 24/T 41/b 11/b 22/T 21/u 
mls 058/078 055/077 056/076 055/080 056/083 059/083 061/085 
20/u 34/T 34/T 42/T 11/b 22/T 21/b 
4bq 055/080 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 057/084 059/086 
10/u 34/T 46/T 42/T 11/b 22/T 21/u 
bhk 059/077 054/078 055/074 054/076 054/084 059/082 062/085 
30/u 25/T 56/T 42/T 22/T 22/T 21/u 
shr 048/078 048/075 048/073 047/076 049/081 052/082 053/084 
01/u 24/T 34/T 41/b 11/b 22/T 21/u 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings