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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
229 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013 


Short term...valid for sun and Monday... 


Tornado Watch 217 issued for Carter...Fallon...Powder River and 
Rosebud counties until 10 PM MDT. 


Short term models in good agreement with regard to area under the 
gun today. This involves areas mainly northeast of an Alzada to 
Roundup line. Cape values of 1000-2500 j/kg expected at maximum 
heating with lifted indices down to -6 prognosticated. Upper forcing 
upstream is subtle...but evident on 400mb vorticity proggs and 
should be plenty to kick things off. However...timing of heaviest 
action is inconsistent with hrr/NAM indicating 3-6 PM but BUFKIT 
soundings showing cap breaking by noon today. We already have some 
strong cells in the southeast zones so will lean toward a middle afternoon 
initiation of surface based severe storms. The vertical wind 
profile continues to show strong shear which will easily sustain 
updrafts leading to hail. I am also concerned for isolated 
tornadoes with the level of instability and shear. If forcing 
turns out to be greater than prognosticated the environment may indeed 
yield super cells capable of tornadoes. For tomorrow...proggs 
indicate higher cape pushed well west into our forecast area so 
the threat of super cells developing will involve most of the 
lower elevations including Billings. Strong veering winds with 
height will again sustain updrafts for a large hail threat with 
storms initiating over the pryors and beartooths and intensifying 
as they move north/northeast. Our central zones including Billings 
may be the focus Sunday afternoon and then the convection moving 
northeast by evening affecting the Miles City and Baker areas. 


Monday...severe thunderstorm threat continues as a short wave 
trough in the mean flow aloft moves over Montana. Strong 
divergence prognosticated to affect our forecast area with a strong wind 
shift to the west occurring. This may establish a line of 
convection from just east Billings moving east into higher 
dewpoints in the afternoon. Thus...best chance of severe weather 
seems to be in the eastern sections while west may downslope 
behind the trough passage. Lowered probability of precipitation in the west for latter 
part of Monday. Bt 


Long term...valid for Tuesday...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... 


No changes planned to the extended forecast today due to early 
onset of severe weather. The period Wednesday through Friday looks to be 
the best time for widespread precipitation. Severe potential 
appears diminished for the extended period. Temperatures will be 
around seasonal values. Arthur 
&& 


Aviation... 


Thunderstorms will continue across the entire area through this 
evening. In terms of coverage...the storms will be isolated to 
scattered west of Rosebud County. From Rosebud County east...expect 
scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could become 
severe from Rosebud County east...with wind gusts in excess of 55 knots 
and large hail. 


Precipitation will taper off SW of a Harlowton to kbil to southern 
Rosebud County line overnight. Scattered showers and a slight 
chance of thunderstorms will occur east and north of kbil Sun morning. 
Additional thunderstorms will move into the klvm and Harlowton 
areas by 18z sun. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across 
the entire area Sun afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will be 
possible from Roundup to kbil to kshr east. Conditions will range 
from MVFR to LIFR in the thunderstorms through sun. Expect 
scattered mountain obscuration due to the precipitation. Arthur 
&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat 
----------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 052/077 052/074 052/073 053/073 051/068 047/067 049/069 
24/T 33/T 23/T 44/T 55/T 54/T 44/T 
lvm 040/075 044/072 043/069 044/068 041/065 038/066 040/068 
24/T 33/T 24/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 33/T 
hdn 052/081 051/077 051/075 053/077 052/069 047/067 050/069 
34/T 32/T 24/T 34/T 55/T 55/T 54/T 
mls 055/080 055/077 055/076 056/078 056/070 051/067 052/069 
44/T 54/T 34/T 44/T 55/T 55/T 55/T 
4bq 053/082 050/079 050/075 052/078 052/071 047/065 048/067 
34/T 44/T 35/T 34/T 55/T 55/T 54/T 
bhk 054/076 052/075 052/074 052/075 055/069 050/066 049/068 
54/T 55/T 35/T 35/T 55/T 55/T 55/T 
shr 047/079 046/075 044/071 049/074 049/067 044/067 045/069 
23/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 44/T 44/T 44/T 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...Tornado Watch 217 in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening for 
zones 31>33-36-37-58. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings