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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 43 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 37 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
1056 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2013 


Synopsis... 
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms comes to the 
inland northwest today through Tuesday. By Wednesday downright wet 
and cool weather envelopes the region. Showery, cool conditions 
will continue through the week, with a drying and warming trend by 
the weekend. 


&& 


Discussion... 
quick evening update to mention gusty winds and heavy rainfall in 
and near thunderstorms overnight. Elevated convection fired up as 
expected with small hail and occasional lightning fairly 
widespread the last 5 hours. Activity will eventually diminish 
overnight and allow the atmosphere to regroup for the next round 
Tuesday evening. The 0z models have some disagreement in where the 
main threat will be with the NAM being the outlier placing all 
convection in Montana. The GFS is in agreement with the old ec 
keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms over Washington and 
the best potential for significant activity over the Idaho 
Panhandle. Overnight crew will have a challenging forecast to 
determine specifics of Tuesday evenings convection...at this time 
content to leave forecast as is advertising scattered evening 
convection mainly east of todays showers. 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z tafs: several amendments this evening to keep up with passing 
thunderstorm threats. Winds have been erratic in many locations as 
expected but generally expect winds to increase out of the west 
southwest overnight and then diminish later Tuesday. Another round 
of convection likely late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the 
focus slightly shifting east of todays showers. 
/Ab 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 506 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2013/ 


Synopsis... 
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms comes to the 
inland northwest today through Tuesday. By Wednesday downright wet 
and cool weather envelopes the region. Showery, cool conditions 
will continue through the week, with a drying and warming trend by 
the weekend. 


Discussion... 
tonight and tomorrow...large area of low pressure off the coast 
and slowly moving toward the inland with time against higher 
pressure further inland. This synoptic positioning will allow for 
a somewhat warm and unstable southerly flow primarily from the 
south with various shortwave triggers rotating around the 
periphery of the offshore low coming up through it and passing 
through eastern Washington and northern Idaho in a mostly south to 
north trajectory. This warm trajectory negates any shadowing off 
the Cascades and in fact pops remaining highest at times over the east 
slopes of the Cascades and the vicinity lowlands because of this 
setup. The small mesoscale shortwaves triggers passing through 
tonight along with the instability mentioned allow for a prolonged 
mention of thunderstorms of the elevated nature moving quite 
quickly with estimated storm motion to the north near 30 mph or 
so. At the same time the air-mass overhead supports production of 
surface based showers and thunderstorms as well but those will not 
move as quickly...they should still move north...but not as 
fast...more like 5 to 10 mph or so. Due to this above reasoning 
the forecast for tonight and tomorrow remains cluttered with 
various mentions of showers and thunderstorms and associated 
moderate cloud cover. As is typically the case wind will be gusty 
and erratic near any thunderstorm. /Pelatti 


.Very wet with below average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday... 


Tuesday night through thursday: upper level closed low that has 
been sitting off the Pacific northwest coast for several days will 
finally move inland and produce a very wet and cool period. 
Tuesday night the low will move inland and by Wednesday it will be 
across northern Oregon...with Thursday it moving up into northern 
Idaho. As the low slowly moves across the pac northwest it will produce 
periods of rain starting Tuesday evening and continuing through 
Thursday. The best forcing for heavier rain amounts will be mainly north 
and east of Spokane...across northeast Washington and the northern Idaho 
Panhandle. The valleys could see 1.00-1.50 inches of rain with the 
higher terrain possibly seeing two inches of rain. There will be 
some isolated pockets up in extreme north Idaho and Washington...mainly 
from Northport east towards Porthill that could see 2.50 inches of 
rain. The northern Cascades will also be another location to see 
up to an inch of rain or snow as snow levels will lower as the low 
moves in. Snow levels will generally be 6000 feet or higher 
through the event. The area which should receive the least amount 
of rain will be south and west of Moses Lake where they will see a 
quarter of an inch or less. The heaviest rain will fall Wednesday 
into Wednesday night. 


Thunderstorm potential will remain high Tuesday evening as the 
first strong wave pushes into the area providing a good kicker for 
thunderstorms to fire off. Generally the threat will be 
everywhere, but models are showing the best instability across 
north Idaho. By Wednesday thunderstorms remain a concern, mainly 
north and east of the low, so over eastern Washington and north Idaho. And by 
Thursday the our chances lessen even more with the best potential 
being across north Idaho. Heavier amounts of rain are possible under 
any thunderstorm that develops with this system as it moves 
through, and the precipitation amounts mentioned in the previous 
paragraph does not include extra rain amounts from thunderstorms. 


Temperatures Tuesday night will be around average for this time of 
the year. However by Wednesday, with all the rain and cloud cover 
we are expecting, do not anticipate temperatures rising that much 
through the day. Temps Wed will be 15-20 degrees below average for 
this time of the year. Temperatures will remain below average for 
Wed night and thur. /Nisbet 


Friday and Saturday...the upper level low pressure that will be giving 
US our chilly temperatures and increased rain chances should begin 
exiting the inland northwest this weekend. This will bring a 
drying trend from west to east. 


Friday should be the last day of higher rain chances, as the 
upper low moves to near the northeast Washington/Idaho Panhandle 
border. The low should begin to accelerate off to the east through 
Saturday, taking most of the lift and dynamics with it. However, 
ample low-level moisture will remain after the week's rainfall. 
Therefore, we did not remove precipitation chances altogether. Low 
chances will remain, especially over the elevated regions of 
northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. TY 


Sunday and monday: the shortwave ridge expected this weekend will 
be transient. By Sunday night, the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and the 
European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement that the 500mb ridge axis will migrate 
into western Montana. Sunday should remain dry. By Monday, we 
should experience increasing mid-upper level southwest flow 
bringing the increased threat for showers and thunderstorms. 
/Gkoch 


Aviation... 
00z tafs: minor updates to the 00z taf package with overnight 
convection still looking like a good bet. Some model disagreement 
in the initiation of the elevated convection...leaned toward the 
NAM solution which is consistent with previous runs and places 
most activity just east of the Cascades late this evening. 
Showers diminish during the early morning hours with the last 6 
hours of the taf highlighted by surface based convection again 
firing up near keat and sct to bkn skies elsewhere. Winds 
generally southwesterly and locally gusty./Ab 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 56 75 52 55 46 59 / 50 50 80 100 80 70 
Coeur D'Alene 55 75 53 56 47 60 / 50 50 90 100 100 90 
Pullman 50 72 50 56 43 59 / 20 50 80 100 70 50 
Lewiston 57 82 55 62 49 66 / 20 40 70 100 70 50 
Colville 53 79 51 62 48 61 / 50 60 90 100 100 80 
Sandpoint 52 81 50 57 46 59 / 50 50 100 100 100 90 
Kellogg 55 77 50 53 43 54 / 20 40 100 100 100 80 
Moses Lake 57 75 55 63 50 69 / 50 50 50 60 40 30 
Wenatchee 60 74 57 63 52 64 / 40 60 40 60 50 50 
Omak 54 77 53 60 49 65 / 40 70 60 90 70 60 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$