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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 36 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 36 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 39 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
851 PM MDT Monday Jun 17 2013 


Discussion...center of deep Pacific upper low near 45n/130w 
forecast to move slowly inland along 45n...reaching northern Idaho 
Thursday morning. Low will bring slight cooling to our County Warning Area 
Tuesday then drastic cooling Wednesday. However...models do 
not show a distinct cold front. Stability forecasts show best 
chance of thunderstorms should come Tuesday afternoon and 
evening in our northern zones. Models also show instability 
Wednesday but by then the low levels should be quite cool and 
Wednesday/S instability may be overdone. Probability of precipitation have been 
trending higher as the event draws nearer and may not be high 
enough especially on Wednesday when NAM now looks like the best 
model...at least for precipitation. But we will defer update to next 
crew after all 00z model data have come in. 


&& 


Aviation...sct-bkn cumulus deck and isolated VFR rain showers will 
continue across eastern Oregon and near the Idaho/NV/UT triple point 
through 04z. Widespread VFR under mostly clear skies after 04z. 
Light to moderate surface winds...becoming west /generally 15 kts or 
less/ after sunset. Southwesterly flow aloft will average 20 kts at 
10k feet mean sea level. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
short term...tonight through Wednesday...large upper low remains off 
the coast of Washington and Oregon this afternoon...centered at 45n 
132w at 2 PM MDT. Models are in excellent agreement that this low 
will move toward the area through Wednesday and be right overhead 
late in the day. As this occurs...moisture will increase in SW flow 
aloft and there will be showers and storms in the higher terrain 
this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow. Most of the activity 
today and tomorrow will be in the northwest part of the County Warning Area...and 
also in southern Twin Falls County. Temperatures will remain warm Tuesday...a 
few degrees above normal for most of the area. The upper trough will 
push a cold front through the area late Tuesday...leading to a 
strong cool-down for Wednesday. Wednesday has the potential to be a very 
cool day...but at this time we have kept the forecast maximum temperatures for 
the Snake River Valley in the middle to upper 60s. If the clouds end up 
being thicker than currently expected...highs could struggle to 
reach 60. Precipitation will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the main 
upper low moves in. Probability of precipitation have been increased to reflect this. Winds 
will not be strong with system...but due to the cool temperatures...the 
moderate breezes on Wednesday may feel quite chilly. Isolated 
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday. 


Long term...Wednesday night through Monday...models remain in good 
agreement with bringing an upper level low over the region through 
the end of the week...but it also appears that models have slowed 
down the the timing of this low moving to the east. Yesterday models 
had this low moving northeast into western Montana on Friday but now 
it does not move into western Montana until Saturday. With the 
slower timing increased probability of precipitation a bit along northern zone for Wednesday 
night through Friday and cooled temperatures by a few degrees. With 
the latest model trends of a slower movement of the low still looks 
like mostly dry conditions for the forecast area on Saturday but 
will keep slight chance probability of precipitation over the west central mountains. High 
temperatures will be around degrees below normal on Thursday and 
warm to near normal by Saturday. Saturday into Monday a shortwave 
ridge builds over the County Warning Area as another upper level low pressure digs 
off the coast of Washington from the Gulf of Alaska. Increasing 
temperatures slightly above normal temperatures. Monday...upper level low 
moves toward the Washington and Oregon coast allowing for an increased chance 
of probability of precipitation in the northern and western zones. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Discussion...lc 
aviation.....Mt 
previous short term...snow pellets 
previous long term....ja/ka