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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 34 °
• Snow

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 30 °
• Snow

• Thursday
• 
• High: 32 °
• Low: 30 °
• Chance of Snow

• Friday
• 
• High: 32 °
• Low: 30 °
• Fog

• Saturday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 34 °
• Fog

Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
251 am akdt Tuesday may 21 2013 


Discussion... 
aloft...502 dam low located 300 nm northwest of Barrow continues 
to slowly retreat to the northeast while a strong ridge continues 
to build into central and eastern Alaska Mainland. A low over the 
southern Bering Sea continues to move north and east to be near St 
Paul island Tuesday afternoon and near Nunivak Island Wednesday 
morning. Upper level low currently located over northern British 
Columbia continues to dig south and east through Wednesday. As the 
upper level ridge over the central and eastern Alaska splits with 
parent ridge remaining in the Gulf of Alaska and the northern 
portion pushing into the northwest territories an upper level low 
races north along the alcan border Thursday and Friday. Upper level 
ridge in the Gulf of Alaska surges north again to cover central 
and eastern Alaska into the weekend. A series of short waves 
continue to push north and northeast over the West Coast and 
western interior through the week. 


On the surface weak ridging covers the central and eastern 
interior while a 998 mb low in the southern Bering Sea continues 
to move north and east to be just east of St Paul island Tuesday 
afternoon and near St Matthew island Wednesday morning. Moisture 
primarily in the form of rain will continue to move north along the 
West Coast and western interior through the week. Snow north of 
the Seward Peninsula gradually transitioning to rain or rain snow 
mix this morning and is expected to remain rain today as warm air 
mass continues to move to the north. A rain and snow mix is found 
along the western North Slope and will continue through the week 
as series of short waves move north in the long wave. 


Models are in good agreement through the weekend on placement of 
synoptic scale features. Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) remain quite 
bullish on warm temperatures building into the eastern interior 
with the GFS advertising 850 mb temperatures around 12 degrees c 
and the European model (ecmwf) advertising around 10 degrees c. Will need to 
monitor the eastern interior for potential for rapid snow pack 
melt. Snow pack melt especially at altitude in the eastern Alaska 
Range and higher terrain in the eastern interior has been hampered 
by recent record cold and in many locations the addition of 
significant snow. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
expect warming temperatures and day time relative humidity values dropping into 
30 to 40 percent across the central and eastern interior as upper 
level high pressure ridge builds over the area. Development of a 
thermal trough over the eastern interior will increase the 
potential for gusty afternoon winds in these areas. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
Flood Warning continues for Fort Yukon and a Flood Watch remains 
in place downstream to Tanana as breakup activity on the Yukon progresses. 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flood Watch for akz220-akz221. 


Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225. 
&& 


$$ 


Ccc may 13