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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 45 °
• Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 54 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Sunday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

Southcentral and southwest Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
400 PM akdt Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Analysis and upper levels...the pattern change is evident today as 
the large blocking ridge has moved northward over northwest Alaska 
and an upper level low sweeps from east to west from the northwest 
Gulf into the Bristol Bay region late this afternoon. The cold air at 
the core of this low has greatly increased the instability near it 
and has touched off thunderstorms in the Gulf of Alaska and southern 
Kenai Peninsula as it has passed through. A series of waves ahead of 
this low brought showers and some thunderstorms to the Bristol Bay 
area early this morning. This low in merging with another upper level 
low that is south of Sand Point. 


Most of the convective instability is west of the Alaska/Aleutian 
ranges today with the greatest amounts from the Kilbuck Mountains 
west in the middle of the evening. This is due to existing 
instability in the Kuskokwim Delta meeting the cold upper level low 
moving across the Bristol Bay region in the late afternoon and early 
evening. 


At the surface there is a ridge building in the eastern Gulf that 
will move into the remainder of the Gulf and eastern Alaska by 
tomorrow. This ridge will keep a low south of the Alaska Peninsula at 
Bay and dissipate by Thursday night. A strong low I southwest of the 
Aleutians islands which will move into the area tomorrow. 


Model discussion...models are still doing reasonably well today. 
They are all locked on the position and movement of the large high 
but there is a little less certainty as to how the upper level waves 
are all moving. However the largest model question revolves around 
the large low approaching the western Aleutians tomorrow. This low is 
extra-tropical and therefore bears watching due to model difficulty 
in accurately depicting the moisture fields and movement. At this 
time the European model (ecmwf) is a little faster than the GFS and NAM solution . 


Short term forecast...south central Alaska will see skies clearing 
and any residual showers exiting the area this evening as the ridge 
in the eastern Gulf builds in. Southwest Alaska will see some showers 
and thunderstorms through the evening...and possibly through the 
night in the Kuskokwim Delta. There is a chance for dry thunderstorms 
this evening in the southern Kuskokwim valley as this wave passes 
though though the northern part of the valley will probably be to dry 
for any convection at all. 


Long term forecast...the forecast beyond Friday night remains low 
confidence as models continue with inconsistency from run to run. 
This is likely tied to the tropical origin of the large low that will 
be near the Aleutian Islands. The latest model runs are leaning 
toward a solution that will bring the low south of the Gulf which 
would bring warm temperatures to southern Alaska...but not nearly as 
warm as what has been seen over the past week. Due to the run to run 
inconsistency in the models the next few runs should be followed to 
see if they confirm this pattern or keep changing. 


Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...Flood Advisory 111. Flood Watch 145. 
Marine...gale 172 175 176. 
Fire weather...red flag warning 141. 


Jun 13