... Updated western Washington winter weather outlook...
The National weather services climate prediction center (cpc)
recently released their latest winter weather outlook including for
the Pacific NW. NWS Seattle produced a youtube weather briefing on
the latest winter weather outlook plus a peek ahead for the rest of
2016. Here is the link - https://youtu.Be/4y1mxh2tnfq
El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific tropical waters remain
quite warm - among the three warmest on record going back to 1950.
As of last week... sea-surface temperatures in these tropical waters
had warmed close to 3.0 degrees celsius above average and showing
signs of leveling off. Other such warm el ninos included the Winters
of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
With El Nino well in place... the CPC winter seasonal outlook for the
Pacific NW maintains a strong likelihood of warmer than average
temperatures. For precipitation... the latest outlook indicates near
average or tips the odds toward below average through the winter.
What does all this mean for our mountain snowpack? The warmer than
average temperatures usually result in a higher than average
mountain snow level. This trend translates into good odds of a below
average mountain snowpack... especially at lower elevations. Yet... a
repeat of last Winters meager mountain snowpack is not anticipated.
The latest guidance on the trend for eastern Pacific tropical sea-
surface temperatures shows a dramatic cooling trend this coming
Spring and into the Summer. This trend means that the current El
Nino episode should end and turn into either neutral or even La Nina
conditions by the fall of 2016. For the latest seasonal weather
outlooks including this coming Spring... Summer and fall... click the
NWS Seattle web Page headline at www.Weather.Gov/Seattle/