365 
fxus63 kgid 082352 
afdgid 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
552 PM CST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Aviation...00z kgri taf. VFR conditions will persist through the 
night with southerly winds veering from south...to west southwest 
over the course of the night. High clouds will be on the increase. 
Cold front will likely pass through kgri between 13z and 16z 
turning the winds to out of the north northwest. Winds will 
increase through the morning and into the afternoon in what is 
shaping up to be a windy day. There is a slight chance of a few 
sprinkles or snow flurries behind the cold front...but left 
precipitation out of the taf for now. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CST Thursday Jan 8 2009/ 


Short term...tonight through 12z Saturday. Main forecast concern 
will revolve around a front moving through the area Friday morning. 


Satellite indicates that the cloud cover from this morning is 
diminishing across the forecast area...but a few more will be moving 
into the area this evening and tonight. Winds are expected to turn 
to the west tonight and with the down slope expect that temperatures 
should remain mild during the night. A cold front is expected to 
move into the forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. In 
addition...there is an upper wave that will move through the area on 
Friday. The models give very light quantitative precipitation forecast across the north and expect 
that there will be some sprinkles or flurries Friday afternoon. 
Cooler air comes in behind the front initially...but the cooler air 
holds off until Friday evening before moving into the area. Expect 
that temperatures should warm a little during the morning but will 
probably level off...especially in the north...during the afternoon. 
Friday night temperatures should drop off quickly as the colder air 
moves into the area. Lastly...behind the cold front the winds 
increase from the north. Expect that winds will be very close to 
Wind Advisory criteria...and may even reach it briefly...but by the 
time of the best mixing the winds are diminishing aloft. 


Long term...12z Saturday through Thursday. Despite the presence of 
any major accumulating precipitation event...this is quite an active 
period...and becoming focused on significant...but possibly brief... 
cold snap middle next week. 


The upper level flow in the 3 to 10 day period will evolve from an 
active semi-meridional flow...to a highly amplified meridional flow 
by day 7...with a ridge along the West Coast and large trough over 
Hudson Bay. 


Look for sunshine and a seasonal start to the weekend as high 
pressure settles across the County warning forecast area during the day. The southwest 
half of the County warning forecast area may be a bit above normal temperature wise. Sunday 
is little tricky...as a quick moving short wave will zip across 
County warning forecast area aboard a strong h25 jet. At the minimum...clouds will be 
more widespread which could wreck a temperature forecast. Qg lift 
is also reasonably strong so a flurries may flutter around. Would 
like to catch one more day for some forecast continuity before 
adding precipitation at this point. 


Monday and Tuesday are pretty up in the air as the upper flow turns 
more northerly and one clipper system passes to the northeast of the 
County warning forecast area Monday. That system will drop a swath of snow from South Dakota 
to Iowa....but our proximity would favor flurries at most. Now we are 
talking a non-measurable event in day 4...probably only impact the 
far northeast County warning forecast area. Will hold off on flurries. Played the near HPC 
guidance middle ground for temperatures...as the clipper will bring 
brisk winds Monday and some cold advection. Warm advection begins 
again as early as late Monday night from the west...ahead of the 
next...much more significant cold surge. Another clipper low will 
lead the cold air to follow...with accumulating snow to our 
northeast again. 


Tuesday night through Thursday...this is period of most impact and 
interest as models suggest a very significant cold air regime will 
move into plains region. That part looks pretty firm. The timing of 
the initial cold surge seems to settling in on or around Tuesday 
evening. The 12z GFS/00z European model (ecmwf) were both depicting 1050+ mb surface 
high pressure...which is really very strong. 12z European model (ecmwf) available 
suggest not quite as strong of cold air...but still in the 
neighborhood of the middle-December cold spell with highs likely in the 
teens/lower 20s for a couple of Days. Point is...the temperature 
forecast for Wednesday/Thursday has been lowered considerably...to 
roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal at point. Fortunately the lack 
of snow cover around here will take some edge off the cold...and the 
European model (ecmwf) is suggesting a quick turn to warmer conditions by the weekend 
of the 17th. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$