921 
fxus62 kmhx 082017 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
316 PM EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Synopsis... 
a trough of low pressure will move off the coast this evening. High 
pressure will pass through the southeast states Friday and off the 
coast Friday night. A cold front will move through early Sunday 
morning. High pressure will move across the southeast states Monday. 
Another cold front will move through Tuesday...and another on 
Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
upper trough axis over the middle part of North Carolina this 
afternoon with the surface reflection a bit further back to the west 
over the foothills. Both will move off the coast this evening taking 
the moisture with it. Expect clearing skies early this evening with 
mostly clear overnight. 12z GFS/NAM low temperatures for tonight close and 
accepted. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 
an active pattern ahead with a broad upper trough over the eastern 
half of the country. High pressure will pass through the southeast 
states on Friday. A very dry airmass will bring mostly sunny skies. 
Temperatures will be on the cool side with winds still out of the 
northwest. Temperatures will recover Friday night and Saturday as the high 
moves off the southeast coast and winds become southwest ahead of 
the next cold front. The front will pass through Saturday night. 
Moisture supply will be rather deep and front will provide good 
lift. Capped probability of precipitation Saturday night at 50% for now but could see next 
shift bump up to likely. That front will move off the coast very 
early Sunday morning. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
a similar scenario sets up early next week. High pressure will again 
move east through the southeast states Monday and off the coast 
Monday night. The next front approaches Monday night and passes 
through early Tuesday. Moisture not as deep as the front Saturday 
night so probability of precipitation only in the 30-40 percent range. This front however 
will have some very cold air behind it. For the middle part of the 
week. Highs Wednesday afternoon only expected in the upper 30s to 
middle 40s. A slight chance of precipitation in store for Wednesday night and 
Thursday with the next front. For now only carrying 20 percent. 


&& 


Aviation /19z tosday through Tuesday/... 
band of light showers/sprinkles moving across the County Warning Area over the 
next couple of hours are falling from higher cloud bases with 
generally VFR conditions prevailing. Trends from MOS guidance and 
sref/nam12/GFS time sections show about a 5000 feet base prevailing 
into early evening then with flow becoming more northwest...skies should 
clear around midnight with VFR conditions expected through the day on 
Friday. 


A bout of occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers 
associated with frontal passage Saturday afternoon/evening and 
again with another front Tuesday...mainly over the northern areas. 
Otherwise...VFR conditions should prevail. 


&& 


Marine... 
will continue Small Craft Advisory into Friday morning on all waters. Sref/nam12/GFS 
all indicate gusty west-southwest winds veer to west-northwest/northwest behind front by 00z. A 
secondary surge with nice pressure rises indicated around 06z 
before winds start to subside toward morning over the sounds and 
southernmost waters... and elsewhere by early afternoon Friday. 
The pattern remains fairly active and transitory through the 5 day 
period. Weak high pressure moves over the waters Friday before 
moving offshore Friday night. By midday Saturday...SW gradient 
again increases to Small Craft Advisory range ahead of next oncoming cold front. 
Decent northwest surge indicated behind the front into Sunday morning. 
Weak high pressure builds over the area Monday before cold air 
begins to plunge south Tuesday into late next week with Small Craft Advisory 
conditions likely in that time frame with strong cold air 
advection. 


For waveheights...have used wavewatch guidance with some 
tweaks...especially initally based on current buoy observations. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for amz130-135-156- 
158. 
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for amz152-154. 
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Friday for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...hsa 
near term...hsa 
short term...hsa 
long term...hsa 
aviation...ctc 
marine...ctc