687 
fxus65 kmso 082102 
afdmso 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana 
202 PM MST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Discussion...tonight through Saturday...a cold front is pushing 
across western Montana early this evening. Many locations will 
experience a brief period of gusty winds as the front moves across 
the area. Behind the front snow levels will drop to around 2500 
feet tonight and thus will continue the Winter Weather Advisory 
until 11 PM tonight with the main impact will remaining over lookout 
and Lolo passes. Looking at radars and satellite images the 
snowfall should be decreasing tonight and the evening shift might 
be able to drop these advisories a little earlier. Friday into 
Saturday northwest flow will set up over western Montana with 
some weak disturbances move in from Canada. This will keep a 
chance of mainly snow showers possible through the period. 
Temperatures will be close to seasonal. 


Saturday night through Thursday...medium range models continue 
with the same idea of holding a ridge of high pressure just off 
(or right along) the West Coast with a northwesterly flow over the 
inter-mountain region during the period. Initially...this ridge is 
relatively flat...then gaining amplitude/strength during the first 
part of next week until the upper flow over The Rockies becomes 
more northerly by mid-week. The difficult part of the forecast 
deals with the amount of moisture rounding the top of the ridge 
and spreading into northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle this 
weekend and early next week. A strong jet stream draped over the 
area suggests that there will be upper level dynamics with this 
system and models all agree on varying amounts of moisture 
present in the flow. Thus...will continue the mention of some 
light precipitation through Tuesday...before showing a drying 
trend in the forecast. Seasonal to slightly above normal 
temperatures are expected...then a cool down mid-week. 


&& 


Aviation...a period of gusty winds can be expected at most 
airfields this afternoon and early evening as a cold front pushes 
through the region. Rain will mix with snow and gradually switch 
to all snow in the colder atmosphere behind the front with snow 
showers continuing well into the evening hours...especially across 
west central Montana. Mountains and passes may periodically be 
obscured by precipitation and clouds. 


&& 


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for 
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains-Lower Clark Fork region. 


Idaho...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for 
southern Clearwater Mountains. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...kolata 
long term....msj 
aviation...Dickerson