200 
fxus64 kmeg 082152 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
352 PM CST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Discussion...surface analysis this afternoon places 1018 mb high 
pressure across the Mississippi Valley with last night/S cold 
front located along southern Mississippi/Alabama back through the 
Southern Plains and then into the Central Plains as a warm front. 
Sunny skies have been prevalent across the forecast area into the 
afternoon with temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from the upper 30s 
across areas near the west Tennessee/Kentucky border and 40s 
across northeast Arkansas and the remainder of west Tennessee and 
lower 50s across north Mississippi. Precipitation chances and 
temperatures remain the main challenges in this forecast package. 


Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)...high pressure will 
bring mainly clear skies to the middle south tonight with 
temperatures dropping back into the upper 20s to 30s. Slightly 
warmer temperatures are expected Friday as weak warm air advection 
returns in advance of another cold front which will move through 
the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Made adjustments to 
probability of precipitation from previous forecast packages to raise chances to 
chance/likely during evening and categorical overnight. Not 
expecting any precipitation type issues Friday night into Saturday 
at this time as boundary layer is expected to remain above 
freezing. Precipitation will gradually come to an end across the 
middle south by Saturday afternoon. The high temperature Saturday is 
expected to occur early in the day with falling temperatures 
through the remainder of the day. High pressure will build back in 
for Saturday night through Sunday night with near to below normal 
temperatures expected through the remainder of the period. 


Long term...(monday through thursday)...long range models 
indicate another cold front with Arctic air will move through the 
middle south Monday night into Tuesday. Partial thicknesses along 
with model soundings suggest precipitation should be in the form 
of primarily snow showers as warm air will be very shallow. 
However...left probability of precipitation on low end with some uncertainty still 
remaining. European model (ecmwf) and GFS suggest another cold front will arrive 
with possibly the coldest air of the season towards the end of the 
period but with run to run continuity issues brought temperatures 
down a bit from ensemble averages based on latest model trends. 


Cjc 


&& 


Aviation... 


18z tafs 


VFR conditions will persist through the taf cycle in all 
locations as dry high pressure continues to build into the 
midsouth. Winds should decouple around 00z as the ridge center 
pushes into the midsouth. Southerly flow will then return as the 
ridge pushes east allowing moisture to increase and a few cumulus to 
develop late Friday morning. 


Ccd 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 32 59 43 43 / 0 0 80 50 
mkl 28 56 41 42 / 0 0 80 60 
jbr 31 56 37 40 / 0 10 80 40 
tup 31 59 46 50 / 0 0 80 60 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$