439 
fxus64 klix 082213 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
413 PM CST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Short term... 
a back-door front moved through the area this afternoon and dipped 
the temperatures a bit. Main concern will be returning thicknesses 
bucking appalachian drainage to likely produce an interesting 
spread in nocturnal temperatures across the area tonight. Went 
closer to GFS guidance more out of concession to uncertainty but 
generally 40s for most areas away from the lakes. Temperatures should 
rebound into the 70s for Friday with gradual increase in cloud 
cover ahead of next system. Maintained slight chance probability of precipitation for late 
Friday night. 


Long term... 
Saturday appears to be wet day but probably not a total wash out 
as models tend to exaggerate rainfall coverage with the front. 
Will show 60 percent area-wide Saturday then taper west-to-east 
Saturday evening. Next big impacts will be handling of very strong 
Arctic airmasses moving out of west Canada into central U.S. 
Models differ in intensity of cold air with the GFS being the 
coldest solution this far south...with hard freeze ramifications. 
The European model (ecmwf) shows the Arctic air mass but to a lesser 
degree...borderline freeze for our area. At this time...trended 
closer to the colder GFS but 3 degrees warmer than indicated lower 
to middle 20s. Plenty of time to adjust but not too early to start 
thinking hard freeze with some level of confidence. 


&& 


Aviation... 
ceiling and visibility OK next 24-36 hours. 


&& 


Marine... 
no issues in the short term. Cold frontal passage Saturday to 
present an increase in offshore winds into Sunday then subsiding 
to lower conditions for early next week. Though beyond current 
forecast package...their may be some gale criteria concerns late 
next week with a possible strong Arctic air mass moving down from 
Canada. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 45 73 58 62 / 0 0 30 60 
btr 46 75 59 64 / 0 0 30 60 
msy 52 75 61 68 / 0 0 30 60 
gpt 47 68 60 70 / 0 0 20 60 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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