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fxus63 kdlh 082033 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
233 PM CST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Discussion... 
through sun... 
surface ridge over Red River this afternoon will slide eastward across our County Warning Area tonight 
allowing very cold temperatures. Winds will be nearly calm...so wind chills 
should not be an issue. On Friday...the wfnt that we have been expecting 
will begin its northward movement. Models in much better agmt...but axis of 
maximum snowfall remains to our S. Have decreased snow amts for our southern 
tier to an inch or two as suggested by model and HPC quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts. 
Areas farther north will see lesser amts with very cold/dry air associated 
with the high over southern cn. Weak les holds on through Sat on S shore...then 
another moisture-starved shortwave makes its way across the border country on 
sun. Introduced slight probability of precipitation to account for this system. 


Monday through Thursday... 
cut off low over the Hudson Bay will result in cyclonic flow and 
an ongoing chance for -shsn over the forecast area Sun night into Monday. 
At this time...the GFS/ECMWF/Gem in good agreement that the short wave/surface 
low and region of maximum lift remains to the west and S of the 
forecast area...mainly over the eastern Dakota...and SW third of Minnesota where several 
inches of snow will be possible. However...will be monitoring 
closely as a shift in the storm track to the east would resulting 
the northern extent of the heavier snow reaching into the brd lakes 
region. 


As the short waves dives S on Monday...strong cold air advection air will develop 
over the upper plains bringing large thickness falls. By 00z 
Tuesday 850 mb temperatures approach 30 c below zero along the int'l border 
as 100-50 mb layer thickness fall below 500 dam. The Hudson Bay 
low remains nearly stationary through the extended...swinging 
several short waves and pockets of very cold air over the region. 
The north/northwest flow...combined with Arctic air...will result in a 
prolonged period of lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake 
Superior through next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
low clouds lingering from inl to kbfw in the Minnesota arrowhead this 
afternoon...otherwise clear with light and variable winds. Middle clouds 
will spread east over the forecast area tonight...mainly after 06z. MVFR ceilings and 
-shsn will develop in the brd and dlh areas Friday morning. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh -5 14 1 9 / 30 30 30 10 
inl -21 7 -8 5 / 20 20 20 0 
brd -3 14 1 8 / 40 60 30 10 
hyr -9 14 2 13 / 30 50 50 10 
asx -4 16 5 14 / 20 40 50 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


04/graning