817 
fxus63 kdlh 090946 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
346 am CST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Discussion...main focus for today is chance of snow in the 
extreme southern portion of the County Warning Area...as well as potential for 
lake effect snow showers near Lake Superior. 


Regional radars showing well defined band of snow...stretching 
from southern Saskatchewan...through central Minnesota to northern 
Illinois. The 00z/06z models are in good agreement on keeping 
most/all of the snow just south and west of the County Warning Area today. A few 
models do bring a hundredth or two to the far southern County Warning Area...so 
will hang on to a chance of light snow for Brainerd...Pine 
City...Siren and Shell Lake. 


Will also hang on to a chance of light snow from the North 
Shore...into the twin ports and along the South Shore today. Of 
interest early today is the potential for a lake swirl. Kdlh 88d 
over the past several years has picked up on these a few 
times...and they typically can develop under the current 
conditions. The most common place for development is in The Bowl 
shaped head of the lakes area...where land breezes converge and 
eventually cause a small scale circulation. The ruc13 actually 
picks up on some small quantitative precipitation forecast in the tip of the lake...and the ruc13 
shows a small scale circulation in the surface wind forecast this 
morning. Will hang on to chance probability of precipitation for areas near Lake Superior 
based on this. The ruc13 does not show the small scale circulation 
moving onshore through 18z...but migrating closer to ktwm. Long 
story short...we could see some scattered snow showers near the 
lake...and if a lake swirl does develop...there could be some 
localized accumulation wherever it does move in. 


Temperatures this morning have dropped to 25 below or colder at kinl and 
kcqm as shallow Arctic air and clear skies allowed significant 
radiational cooling. A few places were near -25 for wind 
chills...but with calm winds...think wind chills will only 
marginally be around 25 below. Will mention morning wind chills 
but not issue Wind Chill Advisory due to dead calm winds and 
marginal wind chill criteria. 


Other than that...fairly quiet into Saturday. Cloud cover will be 
a bit tricky today through Saturday. Think some clouds may hang 
around in the south through that time. Otherwise...should be at 
least partial sunshine...with increasing clouds Saturday afternoon. 


Extended...Sunday through Wednesday..a cold period as 850 mb temperature anomalies 
remain below average through the week. Sunday will be the warmest 
day before several surges of Arctic air drain from the pole. 
Forecast heat rises of 300m at 500 mb over eastern Alaska will amplify eastern Pacific 
Ridge. As a result...cold air over northern Canada/polar region will 
drain south continuously through the week. Usually guidance is 
biased too warm with this type of pattern so temperatures may need to be 
lowered even more in subsequent forecasts. Limited quantitative precipitation forecast other than les as 
baroclinic zone suppressed well south of region. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR expected in most terminals as surface low stays well 
south of region today. Area of middle level clouds will skirt southern County Warning Area 
so brd/hyr most prone to lowering ceilings between 5-10k. Possible 
brief window of lt snow at brd early this morning. Dlh taf tricky 
as low level wind will shift to NE and allow lake effect clouds to 
lower ceiling to MVFR this morning. Surface high will build into 
region overnight with VFR expected. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 14 -4 14 0 / 30 10 10 10 
inl 7 -10 13 -3 / 10 10 0 10 
brd 14 -10 15 -2 / 30 10 10 10 
hyr 16 -10 16 -2 / 10 10 10 10 
asx 16 -2 16 3 / 30 10 10 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


Dap/Cannon