829 
fxus61 kcar 090826 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
326 am EST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Synopsis... 
low pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will gradually move 
east today and tonight. Weak high pressure will build across the 
region Saturday. Low pressure exiting the middle Atlantic coast will 
slide south of the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure 
will return Sunday night then a weak low may approach late Monday 
into Tuesday. 
&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
middle and upper level trough will persist across the forecast area 
today with a continuation of cold northwest flow regime. Weak S/waves 
embedded in the flow will keep skies generally cloudy with scattered 
show showers or flurries possible across northern areas today. 
Across downeast areas expect a bit more in the way of sun with 
downslope flow. 


Middle and upper level trough will move east tonight with skies 
becoming partly cloudy across the north and mainly clear downeast as 
weak high pressure builds toward the region from the west. High 
pressure will persist into Saturday with continued dry weather. 
&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Sunday/... 
all models in good general agreement. High pressure will ridge into 
the North Atlantic as a low pressure system deepens along the 
the Appalachians. By 12z sun the low will move into off the coast 
near Cape Cod...and track to the south of Nova Scotia by 00z Monday. 
The current track will keep most of the weather associated with 
this system off the coast. Used the gfs40 for model guidance for 
this period. 
&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
high press will build into the region behind the low exiting east 
into the Canadian Maritimes. The high will giveway to a low press 
system and associated frontal system. The timing differs slightly 
between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The GFS had the low and frontal system 
into western Maine by middle day Tuesday...the European model (ecmwf) brings it into western 
ME Tuesday night. Both models move the system through by 12z 
Wednesday...with a high press ridge building in behind the low. A low 
press system is indicated over West Virginia at 00z Thursday on GFS...over S ind 
European model (ecmwf). By 12z Thursday GFS moves the low into the North Atlantic south of 
Cape Cod. The European model (ecmwf) has it over north Virginia...then into the North Atlantic by 
00z Friday. The European model (ecmwf) follows the GFS 12 hour behind and a bit farther south. 
Both indicate higher pressure by the end of the period. The timing 
of this low seems to be the big question. Both models keep it out 
to sea far enough that it will be a coastal waters...coastal zones 
weather producer. For the long term grid loaded the gmos. Made 
minor adjustments to the pop and sky grid to better support one 
another. 
&& 


Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/... 
VFR conditions are expected today through Saturday. VFR is 
expected to continue on Sunday...except kbgr/kbhb terminals which 
may see sub VFR conditions in any light snow from low pressure system 
passing south of the region. VFR will then return for all 
terminals through Tuesday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight. 
Winds/seas will diminish below Small Craft Advisory levels on Sat. 


Short term: a low pressure system is forecasted to track through 
the Gulf of Maine Sunday into Sunday night. This will produce Small Craft Advisory 
to near gale force winds. The low will rapidly track east into the 
Canadian Maritimes. Higher press will build in behind this low 
diminishing winds and seas. High press will dominate the early 
part of the long term...giving way to a deepening low Tuesday 
afternoon. At this time the system indicates only Small Craft Advisory winds and 
seas as it move through the Gulf of Maine. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Saturday for anz050>052. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...duda 
short term...Norton 
long term...Norton 
aviation...duda 
marine...duda/Norton