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fxus61 kakq 090907 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
407 am EST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build into the region today...then move off 
the coast for tonight into Saturday. A cold front pushes across 
the area Saturday evening and night. High pressure returns for 
Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
surface hi pressure builds into the region today...then shifts just offshr 
tonight. A dry airmass over the area and northwest or wrly surface winds will only 
allow maximum temperatures to range through the 40s...undr a mostly sny sky. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/... 
the hi will slide off the CST for tonight and Sat...as a cold front 
approaches from the west. Mostly clear this eveng...then becmg prtly cloudy 
tonight most places. Min temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s. 


Going closer to the GFS/03z sref timing of the front and its 
movement through the region and off the CST Sat eveng/ngt. 
Thus...have adjusted chance for rain showers arriving later Sat morng northwest 
cnties...then likely rain showers ovrspreading area from northwest to southeast Sat afternoon 
through Sat eveng. Maximum temperatures Sat ranging from the middle 40s extreme north to 
the upper 50s southeast. 


Decreasing chances for rain showers from northwest to southeast aftr midngt Sat night...as 
front pushes offshr by daybreak. Drying from the northwest late Sat night 
through sun...though clearing...esply closer to the CST...may be more gradual 
due to low level flow from the north and low level cold air advection over "wrmr" waters. Min temperatures 
Sat night in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Undr a prtly sny sky...hi temperatures 
sun ranging from the upper 30s/around 40 north-northeast to the middle/upper 40s south-southwest. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
high pressure looks to remain in control for the beginning of next week 
west/ fairly benign weather and cooler low temperatures in the 20s to low 30s...and 
highs in the 40s. Models still indicating that a weak trough will swing 
through from the northwest on Tuesday. This feature appears to dry as it mvs over 
the mountains...so decided to keep probability of precipitation low at 20-30% (higher over the northern 
half of forecast area.) Colder air is prognosticated to arrive later in the week. 
There is great uncertainity with pattern after the medium range..with 
Euro/GFS showing dramatically diff solutions. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/... 
VFR conds should continue across terminals today...as high pressure 
builds into the area. Generally light west/northwest winds today...becoming S/southwesterly 
lt tonight ahead of low pressure/cold front approaching from the west. 
Middle/hi clouds associated with this system expected to increase 
overnight into the day Sat...with precipitation and possible flight 
restrictions coming by Sat evening into early Sunday. High pressure 
builds back into the region by late in the weekend into early next 
week...with generally VFR conditions returning for this time frame. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds continue to gradually diminish as high pressure builds in from 
the west. Small Craft Advisory conds continue through the morning today with this 
secondary surge as midlvl trough pushes offshore. Judging from GFS 
bufr soundings and latest RUC/WRF...current timing taking down Small Craft Advisory 
for the afternoon looks good...although it may be a close call over 
northern ches Bay and far northern coastal waters. Will leave hazards 
as is and reassess prior to 12z update. 


Otw...westerly winds today become S/southwesterly tonight/early Sat ahead of low pressure/cold 
front approaching the region from the west. Winds look to ramp back up 
once again into solid Small Craft Advisory range by midday into Saturday night as 
front approaches. BUFKIT soundings showing low end gale gusts 
possible lt Sat night/early Sunday morning with the front and upper trough 
crossing the area. Bufr soundings advertising h92-85 winds in the 
35-40kt range Sunday morning...so at the least mariners should 
anticipate strong Small Craft Advisory conditions for later Saturday into early Sunday. 
To avoid confusion (and per local policy) will defer to day crew to 
hoist flags for this timeframe once current Small Craft Advisory expire. 


For waves...stayed close to wavewatch guidance for the weeked and 
used GFS/sref blend for winds through the weekend. This blend pushes 
front east of the waters by midday Sunday....with winds/waves 
diminishing below Small Craft Advisory crit by later sun/early Monday. High pressure builds back 
over the waters for the first half of next week. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for 
anz630>633-650-652-654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...tmg 
near term...tmg 
short term...alb/tmg 
long term...smf 
aviation...mam 
marine...mam