898 
fxus61 kakq 091152 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
652 am EST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build into the region today...then move off 
the coast for tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push across 
the area Saturday evening...with high pressure returning for 
Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
surface hi pressure builds into the region today...then shifts just offshr 
tonight. A dry airmass over the area and northwest or wrly surface winds will only 
allow maximum temperatures to range through the 40s...undr a mostly sny sky. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/... 
the hi will slide off the CST for tonight and Sat...as a cold front 
approaches from the west. Mostly clear this eveng...then becmg prtly cloudy 
tonight most places. Min temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s. 


Going closer to the GFS/03z sref timing of the front and its 
movement through the region and off the CST Sat eveng/ngt. 
Thus...have adjusted chance for rain showers arriving later Sat morng northwest 
cnties...then likely rain showers ovrspreading area from northwest to southeast Sat afternoon 
through Sat eveng. Maximum temperatures Sat ranging from the middle 40s extreme north to 
the upper 50s southeast. 


Decreasing chances for rain showers from northwest to southeast aftr midngt Sat night...as 
front pushes offshr by daybreak. Drying from the northwest late Sat night 
through sun...though clearing...esply closer to the CST...may be more gradual 
due to low level flow from the north and low level cold air advection over "wrmr" waters. Min temperatures 
Sat night in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Undr a prtly sny sky...hi temperatures 
sun ranging from the upper 30s/around 40 north-northeast to the middle/upper 40s south-southwest. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
high pressure looks to remain in control for the beginning of next week 
west/ fairly benign weather and cooler low temperatures in the 20s to low 30s...and 
highs in the 40s. Models still indicating that a weak trough will swing 
through from the northwest on Tuesday. This feature appears to dry as it mvs over 
the mountains...so decided to keep probability of precipitation low at 20-30% (higher over the northern 
half of forecast area.) Colder air is prognosticated to arrive later in the week. 
There is great uncertainity with pattern after the medium range..with 
Euro/GFS showing dramatically diff solutions. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/... 
VFR conds should continue across terminals today...as high pressure 
builds into the area. Generally light west/northwest winds today...becoming light/variable 
overnight. S/southwesterly winds lt tonight and Sat ahead of low pressure/cold 
front approaching from the west...with some potential gusts to 20 knots 
ahead of the front lt Sat afternoon. Middle/hi clouds associated with 
this system expected to increase overnight into the day Sat...with 
precipitation and possible flight restrictions coming by Sat evening into 
Sunday morning. High pressure builds back into the region by late in the 
weekend into early next week...with generally VFR conditions returning 
for this time frame. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds continue to gradually diminish as high pressure builds in from 
the west. Small Craft Advisory conds continue through the morning today with this 
secondary surge as midlvl trough pushes offshore. Judging from GFS 
bufr soundings and latest RUC/WRF...current timing taking down Small Craft Advisory 
for the afternoon looks good...especially down south where winds have 
already started to fall off a bit. Will be a much closer call over 
northern ches Bay and far northern coastal waters...with newest 
RUC/06z GFS bufr data showing Small Craft Advisory crit gusts (~20-25 kt) lingering 
into the early afternoon before diminishing after 18-20z today. 
After a bit of quick reassessment this morning...have decided to 
leave hazards as is. 


Otw...westerly winds today become S/southwesterly early on tonight into Sat ahead of 
low pressure/cold front approaching the region from the west. Winds look 
to ramp back up once again into solid Small Craft Advisory range by Sat afternoon/night 
as front approaches. 00z/9jan BUFKIT soundings showing low end 
gale gusts possible early Sunday morning with the front and upper 
trough crossing the area....with h92-85 winds in the 35-40kt range. So 
at the least...mariners should anticipate strong Small Craft Advisory conditions 
for later Saturday into early Sunday. To avoid confusion (and per 
local policy) will defer to day crew to hoist flags for this 
timeframe once current Small Craft Advisory expire. 


For waves...stayed close to wavewatch guidance for the weeked and 
used GFS/sref blend for winds through the weekend. This blend pushes 
front east of the waters by midday Sunday....with winds/waves 
diminishing below Small Craft Advisory crit by later sun/early Monday. High pressure builds back 
over the waters for the first half of next week. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for 
anz630>633-650-652-654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...tmg 
near term...tmg 
short term...alb/tmg 
long term...smf 
aviation...mam 
marine...mam