769 
fxus64 kshv 091118 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
518 am CST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Discussion... 


Early this morning a surface boundary was working back north 
across northeast Texas and into central and southeast Louisiana. 
Surface dew points were climbing as the southerly low level winds 
were returning in wake of the system. Above the surface increasing south 
and southwest winds were also allowing the boundary layer to 
moisten returning low clouds and by afternoon may produce a chance 
of light rain as moisture deepens and affected by weak 
disturbances moving overhead in the middle levels. Rain chances will 
increase during the evening and overnight as a cold front 
approaches from the northwest and a dry line extending south 
across Texas shifts east. The cold front will overtake the dry 
line with the front nearing a Texarkana to Tyler line near 
daybreak Saturday morning and to a Monroe Louisiana to Houston line 
near middle day. I have ended rains by early Saturday afternoon. 
Temperatures will be nearly steady or slowly falling 
Saturday...and it should be a cold and gusty day with winds 
dropping off by midnight. Freezing temperatures will occur overnight 
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Surface high pressure 
will build into the four state region and should prevail through 
early next week. Another re enforcing front arrives late 
Monday...with returning southerly flow into middle week. An Arctic front 
returns on Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slight chance of 
rain...but the rain ends before the really cold air returns. Much 
colder and drier air will be in place on Thursday and Thursday 
night with a hard freeze possible. /06/ 


&& 


Aviation... 


IFR/MVFR ceilings bound by area west of I-49 and I-20 and south...over 
much of NE Texas and west la. Vlifr/LIFR over deep East Texas and klfk. The 
stratus deck is moving north at 30kts. All ceilings will slowly lift and 
should break by middle morning with heating and gradient south winds to 
increase quickly. In fact by late a.M. With mixing...surface gusts over 
20 kts expected. We should see VFR conditions much of p.M. Hours with 
warm and breezy conditions developing showers ahead of a strong cold 
front during evening and overnight. Expect surface northwest winds 10-20 kts 
along I-30 by 10/10z and into southern and eastern areas of County Warning Area by 
15 or 16z early on Saturday. Cold and windy VFR to follow. /24/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 72 49 54 33 58 / 20 60 20 0 0 
mlu 68 52 57 34 54 / 20 60 40 0 0 
deq 67 41 51 22 56 / 20 50 10 0 0 
txk 68 45 52 29 58 / 20 60 10 0 0 
eld 68 48 52 29 55 / 20 60 40 0 0 
tyr 72 44 54 29 59 / 20 60 10 0 0 
ggg 72 46 52 29 57 / 20 60 10 0 0 
lfk 76 52 54 31 60 / 20 60 30 0 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


06/24