087 
fxus63 kgld 091151 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
451 am MST Friday Jan 9 2009 




Discussion... 
200 am MST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Upper trough looking a bit more organized per model data when 
compared to the past few days. By 18z today a nice northeast to 
southwest oriented band of 850-500 moisture/700 frontogenesis and 
upper jet divergence move into the northwest 2/3 of the area. 
Light quantitative precipitation forecast is expected in the form of rain and/or snow. No 
accumulation is expected as the system is rather quick moving. By 
00z the dynamics and moisture split east and west of our area. 
Subsidence and middle level lapse rates increase behind the system 
allowing some better mixing of winds aloft to the surface. At 
present time am expecting gusts of 45 miles per hour or so...borderline 
advisory. Per coordination with surrounding offices will go ahead 
and issue the advisory for the entire area from 18z-00z. 
Temperatures today will range from near 40 over the higher terrain 
near Flagler to near 50 from Tribune to Hill City. 


For Saturday and Sunday...forecast area in northwest flow aloft. 
Little change in 850 temperatures from past few days so low to 
middle 40s still looks good. On Sunday temperatures will continue to 
warm with readings around 50/low 50s under a partly cloudy sky. 
For Sunday night another slug of moisture moves in after midnight 
as a weather system moves through the northwest upper flow. GFS 
and Canadian models show some light quantitative precipitation forecast with this system. Have 
kept silent probability of precipitation going with surrounding offices but oriented them 
to where I think best chances will be. Something to watch in later 
forecasts. 


Monday-Thursday...no changes made. Monday highs per 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) 
near normal but tuesdays highs look to go quite a bit above normal 
with 850 temperatures of +6c to +8c. If this verifies will need to bump 
temperatures up quite a bit. On Wednesday temperatures fall to 
near or below normal readings as large/cold upper high moves south 
out of Canada with deep upper trough covering the northern and 
Central Plains. Current maximum T grids will need to be lowered if the 
00z data verifies. For Thursday there are some signs that brunt of 
coldest air will move be east of the area with warmest 850 temperatures 
along the Front Range and eastern plains of Colorado. Current 
temperatures would need to be adjusted upward...especially across the 
western 1/2 of our area if this were to verify. 


07 


&& 


Aviation... 
905 PM MST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


For the 12z tafs...westerly winds will switch out of the north 
later this morning as the cold front moves across the taf sites. 
Sustained north winds near 25 kts with gusts near 35 kts will be 
possible through the late afternoon. Ceilings should remain 
VFR...however may drop to MVFR at times. After Sunset North winds 
will drop near 10 kts. 


Burtis 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...Wind Advisory from 11 am MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST 
/6 PM CST/ this afternoon for ksz001>004-013>016-027>029- 
041-042. 


NE...Wind Advisory from 11 am MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST 
/6 PM CST/ this afternoon for nez079>081. 


Colorado...Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon 
for coz090>092. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office Goodland