889 
fxus63 kddc 090831 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
231 am CST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


Winds and temperatures today with the frontal passage will be the main 
forecast concern. 


WV loop and the 00z upper air observation show the next significant trough 
on its way into the Great Basin with 120 to 140 M height falls. 
This system should move southeastward into the central rockies and 
plains by late today. This will help push the surface low currently 
centered over SW South Dakota southeastward this afternoon. A decent cold 
front should move down with it, with winds shifting to the north 
across most of the County Warning Area by 18z. The NAM and the RUC both pick up 
winds around 18-21z this afternoon. With the 850mb trough axis 
over western Kansas for much of the day, it seems that winds just off 
the deck will be around 40kts during the period of peak momentum 
Transfer. On the other hand, the gradient looks pretty tight 
behind the front, and we tend to blow at the drop of a hat anyway. 
It will be marginal, but after coordination with surrounding 
offices will go ahead with a Wind Advisory from 18 to 00z this 
afternoon for all but our far southeast and far southwest. 


As for temperatures, it looks like we will get a non-typical 
temperature pattern today with the front coming down. Models are 
still in pretty good agreement with the best cold air advection 
holding off until later in the day. Think that even the northern 
counties will get to around 50 early today before starting to drop 
off in the late afternoon. The southeastern counties could get to 
near 60, and made only minor tweaks to the grids we have going. 
Will try and reflect a late afternoon drop off in our northwest as 
the stronger cold air advection kicks in. Some decent clouds should move in 
behind the front, and this along with northerly winds keeping 
things mixed will help lows tonight to stay in the upper teens to 
low 20s. 


By Saturday, northwesterly flow aloft sets in behind the shortwave 
trough, with the surface high remaining in place over The Rockies and 
Central Plains. 850mb temperatures will still be fairly cold, 
particularly in the east. Even with clearing skies and plenty of 
mixing, highs will still be mainly in the 40s. Weak surface low 
pressure over the northern plains will bring some downsloping 
winds on Saturday night. Thus, bumped lows a bit into the lower 
20s despite pretty low dewpoints. 


Days 3-7... 


The 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) models are showing a cold front plunging south 
across the Central Plains by early Wednesday on the nose of Arctic 
high pressure. Still some question as to how far west the impact of 
this Arctic high pressure will be felt and for how long given the 
northwesterly component to the middle level flow. The 00z GFS 
ensembles are split between a shallow and more meridional pattern in 
the upper wind contours around midweek. The operational GFS has 
lined up with the more shallow solution. With the potential for a 
more meridional pattern decided to trim back high temperatures a 
bit on Wednesday which is still in line with surrounding offices. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions will continue at all the taf sites through this 
forecast period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 55 19 46 22 / 10 10 0 0 
gck 52 18 47 21 / 10 10 0 0 
eha 51 24 48 22 / 10 10 0 0 
lbl 56 21 46 21 / 10 10 0 0 
hys 51 18 43 21 / 10 10 0 0 
p28 59 22 45 22 / 10 10 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from noon CST /11 am MST/ today to 6 PM CST /5 PM 
MST/ this afternoon for ksz030-031-043>046-061>066-075>080- 
085>088. 


&& 


$$ 


Fn26/02/02