957 
fxus63 kict 091116 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
516 am CST Friday Jan 9 2009 


Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
a cold front will push southeastward through the taf sites today. 
Ahead of the front...southerly winds around 10 knots and mostly 
clear skies will be common. Behind the front...northwest winds 
will become quite gusty and ceilings around 3000ft will be common. 
A few sprinkles or flurries will be possible at krsl and 
ksln...but confidence is not high enough to include in the 
forecast at this time. The northwest winds will weaken slightly 
but remain gusty through the overnight hours. 


Schreck 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 314 am CST Friday Jan 9 2009/ 


Discussion... 


Main forecast challenges are winds today...and temperatures 
throughout. 


Today-saturday: 
upper trough stretching from the northern rockies to the Great Basin 
early this morning...will slide southeastward into the plains later 
today into tonight. This will allow a fairly strong cold front over 
the northern plains to plunge southward through our area. Intial frontal passage 
prognosticated around 18z in central Kansas...and reaching southeastern Kansas toward 00z. 
A mild start along with balmy 850 temperatures ahead of the front 
will allow much above normal highs...although temperatures likely to fall 
late in day in central Kansas as stronger cold air advection arrives. Steep 1000-850 
lapse rates behind frontal passage and 45-50kt northerly 850 winds should 
allow for winds to reach marginal Wind Advisory levels this 
afternoon in several counties of central Kansas. So will issue a Wind 
Advisory there. The gusty north winds...balmy temperatures and cured 
grasses will yield very high fire danger in much of central/south 
central Kansas. The surface pressure gradient will remain tight this 
evening...allowing gusty north winds to continue after dark. Surface 
high pressure will build into eastern Kansas Saturday with limited 
mixing potential. Prefer the colder NAM highs in southeastern Kansas...and a 
blend of the colder NAM/warmer GFS in our western counties. 


Sunday-thursday: 
anomalously strong upper ridge will develop northward over the West 
Coast states...with upper troffing from eastern Canada down into the 
central/eastern states during the period. Temperatures look to be 
the main challenge during the period with two polar fronts of 
interest. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicate the first one coming through 
Monday...and a stronger front coming through Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Temperatures look to modify to above normal readings Sunday 
ahead of the first frontal passage via downslope component. Temperatures look to fall 
back to more normal readings behind the front for Mon/tues...then 
below normal temperatures expected behind the second...stronger front for 
Wed/thurs. See no reason to deviate from current dry forecast. 


Jmc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 57 22 38 20 / 10 10 0 0 
Hutchinson 55 21 39 22 / 10 10 0 0 
Newton 56 21 37 21 / 10 10 0 0 
Eldorado 57 22 36 20 / 10 10 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 60 23 38 21 / 10 10 0 0 
Russell 52 16 42 21 / 10 10 0 0 
Great Bend 53 18 42 20 / 10 10 0 0 
Salina 53 19 38 21 / 10 10 0 0 
McPherson 54 20 38 22 / 10 10 0 0 
Coffeyville 63 24 35 22 / 0 10 0 0 
Chanute 61 23 35 19 / 10 10 0 0 
Iola 61 23 35 20 / 10 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 62 24 35 18 / 10 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM CST this afternoon for ksz032- 
033-047-048-050. 


&& 


$$