723 
fxus62 kcae 081122 
afdcae 
area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
622 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Synopsis... 
a fast moving and dry cold front will cross the area today. High 
pressure will briefly build in for Friday. Another cold front 
will cross the area late Saturday...bringing a chance of showers. 
Cool high pressure will build in for early next week. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
an upper trough crossing the area will move off the coast this 
evening. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the area 
this afternoon. There is a low probability of a few showers over 
the north midlands. Satellite showing middle and high level clouds 
approaching from the west. Expect partly sunny skies. Went on the 
cool side of guidance temperatures with highs ranging from the middle 50s 
north to lower 60s south. H850 jet 30-40 knots crossing the region 
today. Also expecting another surge of cold air advection this 
afternoon behind the front. Kept lake Wind Advisory in place 
through 7 PM. 


&& 


Short term /tonight trough Friday night/... 
the upper trough and surface cold front will be off the coast 
tonight. High pressure building in from the west tonight will 
briefly settle over the region Friday then move off the coast 
tonight. Cool and dry airmass along with diminishing winds will 
allow temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight. High 
Friday in the 50s as cold air advection ends. Upper flow becoming 
nearly zonal Friday night ahead of a trough crossing the central 
U.S. Dry forecast tonight through Friday night. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
another cold front is prognosticated to move through Saturday and bring 
a chance of showers. Models still have timing issues with GFS 
being the fastest. GFS ensembles showing high spread in probability of precipitation on 
Saturday. Best chance of rain looks like Saturday afternoon into 
Saturday evening. All models have the front east of the area by 
06z Sunday. High pressure builds in Sunday with temperatures near 
normal. Next front crosses the area Tuesday with limited moisture. 
Kept a slight chance of showers. Any precipitation amount should be 
light. A blast cold air sweeps across the region Tuesday and 
Wednesday...with temperatures well below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. High pressure will 
continue to build into the area today. A few middle to high level 
clouds today as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the 
region. As the high moves in the pressure gradient will remain 
tight resulting in breezy conditions from 15z to 00z. Winds will be 
westerly around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots between 15 and 
00z...diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after 00z Friday until the end of 
the taf period. 


Extended outlook...no significant impacts to aviation expected 
Friday through Tuesday. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for scz015-016- 
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. 
Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for gaz040- 
063>065-077. 


&& 


$$