893 
fxpq60 pgum 080756 
afdpq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
556 PM chst Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Synopsis... 
inverted trough east of the marianas continues to show signs of 
convection...mostly on the northeast side of the trough axis. 
This area of showers coincides with remnants of shear line. 


&& 


Discussion... 
convection from this morning north and east of the trough has 
persisted throughout the afternoon hours. Given current 
trend...satellite depiction and latest model guidance went ahead with 
scattered wording for Guam and Rota for tonight into tomorrow 
morning. A calm scenario sets up for much of the weekend. Another 
disturbance currently north of Pohnpei shows up quite well for 
Sunday and Monday in model output but appears that it will skirt 
the southern fringe of the marianas. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
the weak surface trough that gave Majuro showers today has moved 
west. A weak area of convergence behind the trough will keep skies 
mostly cloudy through Tuesday across Majuro. This same trough will 
bring scattered showers to Kosrae tonight and Friday and Friday 
through Saturday across Pohnpei. An area of low-level convergence 
will form near Pohnpei early next week and bring scattered showers 
Monday and Tuesday. 


The long period swell continues to be present across eastern 
micronesia. The swell height has decreased enough to cancel the high 
surf advisory across Pohnpei...Kosrae and Majuro. 


Models indicate that swell will again increase the first half of next 
week. A high surf advisory may be needed during the coming week. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
little change here. Weather remains quiet across western micronesia. 
The trough moving across eastern micronesia will enter the western 
half of micronesia this weekend. This trough will bring scattered 
showers to Chuuk Saturday and Saturday night. This trough will 
continue west and scattered showers are expected Sunday and Monday 
at Yap and Monday and Tuesday at Palau. 


The long period swell continues to be present across eastern 
micronesia. The swell height has decreased enough to cancel the high 
surf advisory across Koror...Yap and Chuuk. 


Models indicate that swell will again increase the first half of next 
week. A high surf advisory may be needed during the coming week. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ziobro/Williams 

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