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fxus62 ktbw 081513 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
1013 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Discussion...surface high pressure from the central Gulf extending 
east across the peninsula will provide mainly sunny skies and pleasant 
dry weather across the forecast area the rest of today. West winds 
will increase some during the afternoon as yet another reinforcing 
front approaches from the north and moves across the region later 
tonight. Current grids/zone forecast are in excellent shape with 
no morning update necessary. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. 


&& 


Marine...C-man and offshore buoys indicating variable winds in the 
5-10 knot range near shore and west winds in the 10-15 knot range 
with seas of 3-5 feet further offshore early this morning. As the 
frontal trough to the north gets closer expect to see a subtle increase 
in the westerly flow (10-15 knots near shore and ~15 knots offshore) 
during the afternoon. Current forecast has a good handle on this...so 
no significant changes expected in the next forecast issuance later 
this morning. 




&& 


Fire weather...very dry air via 12z radiosonde observation data with dew points 
in the upper 30s to lower 40s combined with ambient temperatures 
climbing to ~70 to lower 70s may support red flag conditions over 
interior central and northern zones this afternoon. One negating 
factor will be the increasing westerly wind flow during the afternoon. 
This flow may keep humidity values above flag conditions over my 
coastal counties from Hillsborough north to Levy confining the red 
flag conditions to my interior counties only which is currently 
suggested by 12z NAM surface relative humidity field. For now will keep the current 
red flag warning configuration as is...but I may need to make some 
adjustments by early afternoon if flag conditions don't materialize 
as forecast. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning until 6 PM EST this afternoon for Citrus-Delaware 
Soto-Hardee-Hernando-Highlands-Levy-Pasco-Polk-Sumter. 


Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for Citrus-Hernando-Levy- 
Sumter. 


Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion/marine/fire weather...57/McMichael 
aviation...55/sharp