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fxus62 kjax 080742 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
241 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Short term...amplified pattern noted across the lower 48 states 
with full scale trough over the eastern United States. At the 
surface...high pressure currently dominates the Gulf Coast region 
with another high pressure area centered over the Central Plains. 
At 2 am EST...temperatures were generally in the 40s with pockets 
of upper 30s. Light westerly winds were also noted. 


Today...full scale trough over the eastern United States will exit 
offshore late in the day. Moderate westerly winds above the surface 
are again forecast to mix to the surface today...resulting in lake 
Wind Advisory conditions area-wide. Thus...will issue lake Wind 
Advisory from around noon through 5 PM EST. High temperatures are 
forecast between 65 and 75 degrees....coldest across interior 
southeast Georgia. 


Tonight...high pressure will dominate the area with winds quickly 
diminishing early this evening. Minimum temperatures are forecast 
in the upper 30s to middle 40s...coldest along and west of U.S. 
Highway 301 corridor. 


Nearly zonal pattern aloft will establish Friday through Saturday. 
Meanwhile...surface high will continue to slowly press east across 
the area. Coldest daytime temperatures through the short-term are 
forecast Friday with afternoon highs in the 60s. Aforementioned high 
will translate offshore Saturday with developing southerly winds 
providing warming trend...albeit short-lived. 


Shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front will drop southeast 
across the central United States Friday...with features becoming 
local weather player Saturday night. 


Long term (sun through wed)...a significant shift of synoptic scale 
features is forecast sun through at least Tuesday as full scale trough 
develops over the central and eastern United States. Next cold front 
is forecast to clear the area Sat night followed by high pressure 
building into the area. 


Sunday and Monday...high temperatures in the 60s will be common each 
day with low temperatures in the 30s common away from the coast 
Sunday night and again Monday night. Additionally...a brief freeze 
will be possible over our western zones. 


Following next frontal passage Tuesday morning...even colder 
temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday with afternoon 
highs mainly between 55 and 65 degrees. Sub-freezing temperatures 
are forecast across the interior Tuesday night and again Wednesday 
night...with possibility of a hard freeze over our western-most 
locales Wednesday night. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through today. Westerly 
winds will increase today after 14z to near 20 knots with gusts 
around 25 knots. 


&& 


Marine...offshore flow has weakened but still will need scec 
headline for today as gradient re-tightens with next approaching 
cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for offshore waters by 
middle-afternoon through tonight before winds decrease again early 
Friday morning. 


&& 


Fire...will upgrade watch to warning for entire area today as very 
dry air right above the surface will mix down. Long durations of low 
relative humidity and strong winds are expected. A watch for Friday will be 
expanded into interior southeast Georgia as dry air mixing down will produce 
long durations of low relative humidity again. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 68 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 
ssi 69 42 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 
jax 73 39 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 
sgj 72 45 63 48 / 0 0 0 0 
gnv 72 39 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 
ocf 71 39 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon 
for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Duval-Gilchrist- 
Hamilton-Marion-Nassau-Putnam-Suwannee-Union. 


Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon 
for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Duval-Flagler- 
Gilchrist-Hamilton-Marion-Nassau-Putnam-St Johns-Suwannee- 
Union. 


Red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM EST this 
afternoon for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Duval- 
Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Marion-Nassau-Putnam-St Johns- 
Suwannee-Union. 


Georgia...red flag warning from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for 
Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-coastal 
Camden-coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-inland Camden-inland 
Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. 


Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon 
for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee- 
Echols-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. 


Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon 
for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-coastal 
Camden-coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-inland Camden-inland 
Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 am EST 
Friday for Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 
nm offshore-Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm to 60 nm 
offshore-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm 
offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Zappe/zibura/