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fxus62 ktae 081446 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
945 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Synopsis/update... 
14z water vapor and h4 RUC analysis showing quite an amplified upper 
level pattern across North America this morning. Pattern from west 
to east shows northern stream troughing moving ashore along the 
Pacific northwest coast. This flow then rapidly transitions to 
longwave ridging over much of the inter-mountain west...and then 
finally into impressive longwave troughing covering almost all of 
eastern North America. Our forecast area resides at the base of this 
eastern U.S. Trough but should see heights begin to rise by this 
evening as the upper trough axis pushes off the southeast coast. 


At the surface...1017mb high pressure is centered to our south and 
southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico. To our north we find 
troughing from the western Carolinas to northern Georgia/Alabama in associated 
with a weak cold front. The gradient between these two features is 
resulting in a steady west to southwest flow over the area. 


One final middle-level disturbance is forecast to round the base of the 
upper trough through the remaining daylight hours and help push this 
dry cold front south and east into the area. As the middle-level 
disturbance approaches...numerical guidance in agreement showing a 
decent wind maximum moving overhead just above the surface. Diurnal 
mixing into the early afternoon should easily reach the level of 
this wind maximum and allow for downward momentum transport to the 
surface. With this in mind should be looking at yet another breezy 
late morning/afternoon over the County Warning Area. BUFKIT RUC profiles indicating 
gusts up to around 30 miles per hour not out of the question. Outside of the 
gusty conditions will be looking at mostly sunny skies through the 
day with temperatures rising through the 60s. 


Upper trough exits to the east this evening with surface high 
pressure building overhead from the south and west. Gradient should 
relax this evening allowing for the afternoon winds to subside 
quickly toward sunset. Will be a cool night with temperatures 
dropping into the middle and upper 30s north and upper 30s to middle 
40s south. 


Seasonable and much less breezy day on tap for Friday with zonal 
flow aloft and high pressure still in control at the surface. 
Temperatures will rise under partly to mostly sunny skies to reach 
the middle and upper 60s region wide for the afternoon. 




&& 


Aviation... 
this will be a VFR day with occasional cs at 25k feet. Like 
yesterday...winds will increase late this morning and afternoon... 
with west northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots. 
Winds will quickly diminish by sunset. 


&& 


Marine... 
still seeing a fairly tight gradient in place across the forecast 
waters between high pressure to our south and an approaching trough 
to the north. Cautionary level winds will remain into the afternoon 
hours before the gradient relaxes this evening with the approach of 
high pressure from the west. This relaxing of the gradient should 
allow winds and seas to briefly fall below cautionary levels 
tonight into Friday before flow increases from the south and 
southwest ahead of the next cold front arriving later Saturday or 
Saturday night. 




&& 


Hydrology...cool windy air followed yesterdays fast moving cold 
front which exited east through northern Florida yesterday 
afternoon. Little rainfall was recorded over the area from this 
front yesterday. 


Alabama and southwest Georgia...the area of one half to one inch of 
rain that fell over southeast Alabama and portions of southwest 
Georgia have entered the Choctawhatchee...pea and Chattahoochee 
rivers. Small sharp rises of 1 to 2.5 feet quickly peaked in 
southeast Alabama. Slow minor rises continue in southwest Georgia 
with increased base flows on the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee creeks. 
Spring Creek in southwest Georgia is showing a healthy runoff 
response which should peak with a 2 foot maximum rise. 


Florida Panhandle...routed flow from southeast Alabama will help 
keep flows steady to just below action stage at Caryville and fairly 
steady downstream through Bruce to the Gulf of Mexico for the next 
several days. Smaller creeks and streams are experiencing only 
very minor rises. 


Chattahoochee River...a healthy widespread 3 to 5 inch dump of 
rain in the upper Chattahoochee on 6 and 7 Jan will be working its 
way downstream through west.F. George...George West. Andrews and Woodruff 
dam over the next several days. No significant change to releases 
have been noted on the Chattahoochee dams...other than a slight 
increase of releases on Woodruff to around 18kcfs. This is 
generating minor below action stage rises downstream on the 
Apalachicola River at Blountstown. Flows on the Chipola River remain 
fairly steady and will have little impact downstream on the 
Apalachicola River at the cutoff. 


Flows over the remainder of the area including the Suwannee 
basin...are in recession or at base flow. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 71 40 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 40 
Panama City 71 45 66 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 50 
Dothan 66 38 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 05 60 
Albany 67 38 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 60 
Valdosta 69 39 66 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 30 
Cross City 72 40 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 PM CST this 
afternoon for the following zones: Coffee...Dale...Geneva... 
Henry...Houston. 


Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 PM EST this 
afternoon for the following zones: Baker...Ben Hill... 
Berrien...Brooks...Calhoun...Clay...Colquitt...Cook... 
Decatur...Dougherty...early...Grady...Irwin...Lanier... 
Lee...Lowndes...Miller...Mitchell...Quitman...Randolph... 
Seminole...Terrell...Thomas...Tift...Turner...Worth. 


Florida...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 am EST /10 am CST/ this morning to 6 
PM EST /5 PM CST/ this afternoon for the following zones: 
Bay...Calhoun...coastal Walton...Dixie...Franklin... 
Gadsden...Gulf...Holmes...inland Walton...Jackson... 
Jefferson...Lafayette...Leon...Liberty...Madison...Taylor... 
Wakulla...Washington. 


Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for the following zones: 
Bay...Calhoun...coastal Walton...Dixie...Franklin... 
Gadsden...Gulf...Holmes...inland Walton...Jackson... 
Jefferson...Lafayette...Leon...Liberty...Madison...Taylor... 
Wakulla...Washington. 


Red flag warning from noon EST /11 am CST/ today to 5 PM EST /4 
PM CST/ this afternoon for the following zones: Bay... 
Calhoun...coastal Walton...Dixie...Franklin...Gadsden... 
Gulf...Holmes...inland Walton...Jackson...Jefferson... 
Lafayette...Leon...Liberty...Madison...Taylor...Wakulla... 
Washington. 


GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...Fournier 
synopsis/update/marine...mroczka 
hydrology...Lanier 

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