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fxus62 kmlb 080808 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
229 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Discussion... 
today/tonight...broad l/west trough axis nearing the eastern Seaboard will 
push offshore through tonight with surface trough pushing offshore the 
Carolinas this evening. An increase in the westerly boundary layer flow 
is forecasted across northern sections by late afternoon...which should allow 
sustained winds to increase to around 15 miles per hour with some gusts to near 
20 miles per hour during the late afternoon until around sunset across the northern 
half of the County Warning Area. Cold front that crossed the area Wednesday afternoon has 
pushed well offshore and will usher in very dry airmass to east central 
Florida today. Mainly sunny skies with highs in the lower 70s. Mostly 
clear conditions tonight with light west/northwest winds and lows in the lower 
40s northern sections to upper 40s far southern areas. 


Fri-sun...southerly winds ahead of the next front will lead to 
warmup with middle to upper 70s on Saturday. GFS moves front and 
associated narrow precipitation band through fairly rapidly from Saturday 
evening through middle day Sunday. Probability of precipitation held at around 30 percent as moisture 
is again limited and dynamic support passes to the north. 
Mon-Thu...a dry reinforcing cold front will move through Tuesday 
with strong high pressure behind it. Low temperatures Wednesday am will be well 
below normal with upper 30s inland and middle 30s in typically colder 
locations of lake...northwest Orange and west Volusia counties. Highs may 
only reach near 60 in interior northern sections of forecast area 
Wednesday as high pressure settles over east central Florida. After 
another cool morning Thursday temperatures will begin to moderate as flow 
shifts to onshore. 
&& 


Aviation...VFR. Few-sct250. West wind may gust to 18-20 knots across 
northern terminals during the late afternoon. 


&& 


Marine...will continue exercise caution for the well offshore 
waters early this morning and expect scec conditions to redevelop 
offshore tonight as west flow increases to a solid 15-20 knots. With 
offshore winds...seas close to the coast will diminish to 2 feet. 
Seas will slowly diminish Friday through Saturday then pick up again 
during the day Sunday with next front reaching around 6ft in the 
offshore coastal zones Sunday night and early Monday then 
diminishing slowly again toward midweek. Southwest winds ahead of 
the front will reach 20 to 25 knots in the offshore segment by late 
Saturday. Scec or Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Saturday evening and early 
Sunday 20 to 60 miles offshore. 


&& 


Fire weather...00z 12km NAM model continues to advertise a dewpoint 
crash this afternoon...with min rhs dropping below 30 percent. Have leaned 
again toward the NAM model...and have undercut GFS MOS dewpoints this afternoon 
with min rhs bottoming out between 25-30 percent. 00z NAM also indicates 
an increase in h9 westerly flow to around 20 knots across northern 
sections by 21z...so we should see sustained west winds approach 15 
miles per hour in the late afternoon across northern sections and increase to around 
10 miles per hour far southern sections. Dewpoints will again fall below critical levels 
inland Friday afternoon and then rebound Saturday with moisture 
return ahead of the next front. Dewpoints are expected to drop into the 
low 30 percent Tuesday and again Wednesday as a reinforcing cold front 
moves through. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 73 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 10 
mco 72 47 70 48 / 0 0 0 10 
mlb 73 47 70 50 / 0 0 0 10 
vrb 74 46 71 51 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 6 PM EST this 
afternoon for coastal Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia- 
Martin-northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange- 
Osceola-Seminole-southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie. 


Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...volkmer 
long term....hagemeyer