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fxus62 ktbw 080736 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
236 am EST Thursday Jan 8 2009 


Short term (today-saturday)...upper trough over the eastern Seaboard 
today to keep dry northwest flow over the area. Weak high pressure over 
the area this morning with weak dry front pushing through the deep 
south on last of upper vorticity maxes to bring reinforcing high 
pressure into the region later today into tonight. Expect most to 
sunny skies and cool and dry conditions today with maximum temperatures within 
a few degrees of seasonal norms. Also residual swells in the 
eastern Gulf from strong westerly flow overnight will continue to 
generate breaking waves along area beaches today increasing the 
threat for dangerous rip currents. 


Fairly zonal upper flow on Friday as surface high moves into the west Atlantic 
bringing low level flow off the Atlantic with a slight modifying 
trend. 


By Saturday an upper trough swings into the deep south as the surface 
system pulls north of the area and its cold front moves into the east 
central Gulf. Southerly low level flow ahead of the system to 
keep temperatures slightly above normal with increasing mean layer 
moisture. 


Long term (saturday night-wednesday)...the overall weather pattern 
in the extended will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure over 
the west and a deep trough of low pressure east of The Rockies. This 
will allow for a series of cold fronts to impact Florida. The first 
of which now appears to be on track to arrive Sunday...although just 
24 hours ago this same front was forecast to arrive early in the 
week. In either case the front will not bring much more than another 
shot of cool and dry weather to the region with limited moisture 
expected. With the trough in place temperatures will be below normal 
beginning Sunday night. 


Aviation...VFR expected the next 24 hours. 


&& 


Marine...latest buoy reports show seas continue to slowly fall 
now at 6-7 feet well offshore. Expect seas to fall below Small Craft Advisory in a 
few hours and will allow Small Craft Advisory to expire at 4 am. But residual 
moderately elevated seas and wave action from strong westerly 
flow overnight will continue today as high pressure holds over the 
eastern Gulf. Another weak front will move through the waters 
tonight then high pressure will build in over the southeastern 
states on Friday veering generally weak NE winds. The high shifts 
east into the west atl as another front moves through north Gulf waters 
Saturday tightening the gradient for increasing southerly winds 
and seas. The front to pass over the area Sat nt into sun with high 
pressure again building into the region sun then weaken Monday. 


&& 


Fire weather...the dry and cool airmass over the region today 
will produce red flag warnings and critically low humidities with 
long durations from the Nature Coast into Pasco County with winds 
of 10 to 15 miles per hour are also possible. Over interior central and 
southern areas long durations of low humidities are also expected. 
Along central and southern coastal zones onshore flow is expected 
to keep minimum humidities just above critical levels. The dry 
airmass will remain over the area Friday with the driest air over 
the Nature Coast producing critically low humidities with long 
durations so Fire Weather Watch is in effect. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 71 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 
fmy 73 51 77 55 / 5 0 0 0 
gif 72 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 
srq 71 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 
bkv 72 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 
spg 71 54 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from noon today to 6 PM EST this afternoon for 
Citrus-Delaware Soto-Hardee-Hernando-Highlands-Levy-Pasco-Polk- 
Sumter. 


Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for Citrus-Hernando-Levy- 
Sumter. 


Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST early this morning for 
Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 to 60 nm-Englewood to 
Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee 
River out 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine/fire weather...25/Davis 
long term/aviation...05/cantin